Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won yesterday’s Republican primary in Puerto Rico by a landslide — by 75 points — and here’s why it is bad news for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum:
1. Romney hit just the right tone with many on the Island.
2. He won more than 50 percent of the vote so he got all 20 delegates.
3. Santorum made the decision to contest Romney there, even though Romney was the favorite at the outset. Fair enough. He could have gotten some delegates if he ran a close race.
4 Santorum was guilty of political negligence in going to Puerto Rico and saying that to attain statehood the island would have to make English it’s official language.
5. Santorum realized his bungle because he and his aides tried to walk the comment back or qualify it. No matter how Santorum and his advisors spin it, it was clear they realized that he had blown it and they did damage control.
6. Santorum showed that he has no learning curve. When he started to surge after obliterating Romney in some other primaries and caucses one he gained the national spot light he pivoted to contraception and how reading JFK’s position on church and state made him want to puke. He then lost some votes. Over the past week he seemed to be gaining steam again — and once again got off his economic message and seemed to almost want to chase voters away. HE DID in Puerto Rico.
5. Heading up to the Puerto Rico vote, Santorum had to walk back his English as the official language statement and also was defending his contention that the U.S. needed a new war on pornography.
6. GOP professionals must be looking at Santorum and saying “Geez, when does this guy learn?” And I bet some voters who want to defeat Barack Obama are asking the same question.
7. Romney’s big win creates a news story that could help him in tomorrow’s Illinoise primary — where a new poll already show Romney surging.
Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Romney’s particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he’s even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn’t tended to do that well with is why he’s looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.
Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just ‘somewhat conservative.’ Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney’s also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.
We’ve tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that’s not the case in Illinois. Romney’s favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we’ve found him this year. Santorum’s at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we’ve seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.
If GOP voters are starting to sour on Santorum a little bit it’s probably because they are sensing that he is a candidate who doesn’t learn from his political mistake — that their choice is between Romney the Panderer and Santorum the Aleinator. Romney seems trying hard to win votes. Santorum seems to be trying hard to lose them from all but those who already support him.
In looking at Puerto Rico, it almost looks as if Santorum flew there to get some sun and work — to LOSE VOTES.
Which he did.
Romney should be grateful Santorum is so high profile: he is starting to make Romney look good as a politician.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.