The big takeaway from the Republican primaries and caucus yesterday is that the one candidate who has a chance of beating President Obama still isn’t able to close the deal with his own party.
Rick Santorum’s victories in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri, where Romney finished third, second and second respectively, is a reflection of the continuing turmoil in the GOP over a month after the primary season began. In Missouri’s non-binding primary, Santorum received more than double the votes of Romney and he won by a healthy margin in Minnesota.
Voters, of course, have plenty of time to change their minds about Romney, whose lackluster campaigning, flip-flops, gaffes and questionable conservative credentials have been a turn-off to many Republicans. In this respect Santorum’s victories can be seen as the result of protest votes because while his hard-right views may appeal to the party’s hard-right base, he stands no chance of winning the nomination, let alone wresting the Oval Office from Obama.
Santorum had faded quickly after squeaking out a razor-thin win in Iowa over Romney last month and can now appeal to voters as the alternative to Newt Gingrich, who finished a distant third in Colorado and fourth in Minnesota. The former House speaker did not compete in Missouri and groused last night after the results came in that “This is entirely a beauty contest and has no effect at all.”
“Ladies and gentlemen, I don’t stand here to claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney,” Santorum said in a victory speech in Missouri. “I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama.”
Romney’s campaign has been hearing Santorum’s footsteps for some time. His staff abruptly shifted its focus from Gingrich to Santorum this week, who they attacked in press releases, robocalls, and interviews, mostly over his support for earmarks as a congressman and senator.
Ed Morrissey, who lives in Minnesota and writes at Hot Air, probably knows more about Minnesota politics than anyone. I asked him to explain Romney’s poor showing there.
“I think it’s because the Minnesota caucuses are much more about the conservative base than a primary would be,” he replied, “and Santorum is the only one of the three that has focused his messaging on the conservative agenda rather than Bain Capital or Freddie Mac. Had this been a primary, even a closed primary, the results would probably have been different. It’s important to remember that Romney won the caucuses last time around because he was seen as the more conservative alternative to John McCain. The activists really drive these caucuses.”
Santorum’s problem now is identical to Gingrich’s — proving that he can hold and sustain momentum on a national scale with an organization and resources that pale in comparison to Romney’s, although some new support will certainly accrue to him after his hat trick victories. Romney’s problem now is that much of the focus in the coming days will be on his considerable shortcomings.
Complicating the picture is that there is a two-week lull before the next presidential debate on February 22 in Arizona and the next voting will not be until February 28 when Arizona and Michigan, two states where Santorum does not appear to be particularly strong, hold primaries. For this reason, Santorum is looking ahead to Super Tuesday on March 6 for his next breakout moment.
Weekly Standard editor William Kristol suggests that Santorum could “use the [next] three weeks to demonstrate — by speeches, the one debate and challenges to Newt and/or Mitt to do others, and in other ways –– that he is becoming the real conservative alternative to Romney.”
“If Santorum is ahead of Newt in national polls of GOP voters, and runs better than Newt (and perhaps Romney) against Obama — then he’s in good shape to be the conservative alternative standing vs. Romney before winner-take-all begins,” Kristol wrote in an email.
If Romney is unable to close the deal with Republicans, Santorum would have little chance of doing so with many mainstream voters.
His views on reproductive rights and specifically abortion are harsh in the extreme and he believes that pregnancy through rape is “God’s gift.” Although he presents himself as a Washington outsider he is very much an insider and was the Republican Senate caucus point man for the so-called K Street Project financed by tax-cutting fanatic Grover Norquist and House majority whip and future felon Tom DeLay and helped expedite wall-paying lobbying jobs for Republicans.
The increased scrutiny that Santorum will now receive will show that he has always put his interests first, has loose ethical standards and has devoted his career not to the social causes that he espouses but in looking out for big corporations and the wealthiest of Americans.