If former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had lost New Hampshire or barely won it would have been a huge news story. In the end, he won and by a sizeable margin. But does this mean he’s a shoo in now for the nomination? Or can he be derailed? Is he a candidate who can be appealing to moderates, independents and centrists or has he now moved too far into the Talk Radio Political Culture territory and made his case so convincingly that the old Mitt Romney who ran against Teddy Kennedy is gone that he loses voters who liked Romney in his moderate incarnation?
Here’s an extensive roundup of news, weblog and Twitter reaction on tonight’s vote.
Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, scoring a decisive victory for the former Massachusetts governor in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul finished second, ahead of former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who came in third. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich trail.
Romney’s victory provides a degree of vindication for the campaign’s putative frontrunner following a bruising 48 hours for his operation before voting began in New Hampshire. His rivals piled on the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts during a Sunday debate on “Meet the Press,” seizing on his record at Bain Capital, and his recent comments that he knows what it’s like to fear being given a “pink slip.”
—Andrew Sullivan’s conclusion at the end of his live blogging:
9.59 pm. My take-away? Obviously, Romney is the prohibitive favorite at this point. But the two runners-up staked a position against military hegemony over the entire planet, a seismic shift in Republican politics. And Romney remains … Romney. His speech was the kind of contemptuous, acidic, hyperbolic ad hominem that turns off moderates, independents and former Obama voters. I think he is a weak candidate – and could get beaten further on the Bain front by Gingrich in South Carolina. That several Republicans have legitimized this line of attack is like manna from heaven for the Obama campaign. It can be repeated this fall. It will be.
And the turnout, even during a recession this brutal for so many, was low: not such a great omen for an opposition party.
As they say in Animal House:
Perry, dead.
Gingrich, dead.
Santorum, dead.
The race has shrunk to its core element..
Mitt Romney running for president vs. Ron Paul running to pad his sucker list. And it seems that each will succeed.
A week after winning the Iowa caucuses by just eight votes, Mr. Romney claimed a broader margin of victory here with a coalition of independent, moderate and conservative voters, but he benefited handsomely from a fractured Republican field. He delivered a pointed message to his Republican challengers, urging them not to play into President Obama’s hands by trying to destroy his candidacy as the race moves onto the more challenging terrain of South Carolina….
Representative Ron Paul of Texas, who finished second, congratulated Mr. Romney on his win. But Mr. Paul pledged to press forward with his campaign, declaring, “We have had a victory for the cause of liberty tonight.”
Former Gov. Jon M. Huntsman Jr. of Utah, who had staked his candidacy entirely on New Hampshire, vowed to stay in the race despite falling behind Mr. Paul. “Ladies and gentlemen, I think we’re in the hunt,” Mr. Huntsman said, speaking to supporters in Manchester. “I’d say third place is a ticket to ride, ladies and gentlemen. Hello, South Carolina.”
Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, were trailing their Republican rivals, but looked ahead to the next battle, the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21.
A prevailing sense among New Hampshire primary voters that Mr. Romney is the Republican candidate most likely to defeat Mr. Obama helped lift the former Massachusetts governor to victory. He did well among voters who consider the economy the most important issue, according to exit polls.
—Howard Kurtz in The Daily Beast:
In struggling to explain how he created as well as destroyed jobs as a venture capitalist—parrying a GOP line of attack that the Democrats have also embraced—Romney hardly emerged from New Hampshire unscathed. But the calendar is now very much on his side.
South Carolina, which votes Jan. 21, is fertile ground for conservatives, but the field to Romney’s right remains splintered after Tuesday’s results. And Florida, on Jan. 31, is a diverse and expensive state tailor-made for a candidate with Romney’s deep pockets.
Even if he fails to wrap things up in January, Romney’s well-organized operation is best positioned for a long slog. Only he and Paul, for instance, qualified for the Virginia ballot. And the Romney team is delighted that Paul, not a more threatening long-term challenger, was the runner-up.
The New Hampshire results may give Romney the one thing he’s been lacking as he was overshadowed by the likes of Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, and Herman Cain: the aura of a winner.Four years after losing the nomination to John McCain, Romney managed to recast his candidacy, sharpen his campaigning skills, rise above the flip-flopping charges, avoid major blunders, and prevail in two markedly different states. Iowa is more conservative and evangelical, New Hampshire more moderate and more open to non-Republicans.
Romney scored well in New Hampshire with independents, who made up 44 percent of Tuesday’s electorate, according to some network exit polls, making them a more potent force than in other states. Among this group, Romney edged Paul, 30 to 29 percent, with Huntsman at 27 percent. Romney also led among late deciders with 29 percent of their votes, the exit numbers showed, indicating that the Bain dust-up didn’t hurt him as badly as the headlines suggested.
The electability argument is also working for him. Romney cleaned up among voters whose highest priority is defeating Obama, taking 59 percent among that group.
—Andrew Malcolm earlier predicted these results. Part of his post:
You know how you sit down in a full bathtub and the water goes up at the other end? Well, a big Romney victory in New Hampshire lifts him on the tide of inevitability argument. That could really help down South since 2012 Job One in every Republican’s mind (Newt aside) is ousting Obama.
Second place in the GOP primary we think will go to Ron Paul. Or maybe Jon Huntsman. Paul would be great for Romney because he isn’t going to win anything but a speaking slot at the August convention. It doesn’t really matter for the 76-year-old libertarian either, except he could lure more money bombs from supporters.
Truth is, Paul could finish 10th in a six-man contest and he’d keep going. And his political posse would follow him through burning fields like Zulu warriors.
Third place is really interesting. We’re going to say Huntsman or Paul. We predicted Huntsman’s surge here last week. The poor guy has planted himself in New Hampshire and only New Hampshire for months, as Rick Santorum did so successfully in Iowa. Rural folk love that kind of suck-up and they reward it. Ask about John McCain in 2000 and 2008.
–The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato is one of the country’s best, most professional and most accurate analysts. Here are a few of his Tweets and re-Tweets tonight:
geoffreyvs Geoff Skelley
Hearing some non-politicos calling for Ron Paul for VP. Not in a million years. Or a billion years. #fitn
38 minutes ago
Retweeted by LarrySabatoTonyFratto Tony Fratto
@
@LarrySabato I don’t worry about keeping Paul voters in the tent; I worry about the supply of foil hats.
1 hour ago
Retweeted by LarrySabatoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Gingrich’s new slogan: “I’m not quitting until I spend every dollar to get even with Romney.”
1 hour agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Santorum’s new slogan: “We’re still in double digits.”
1 hour agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Huntsman is really fooling himself. Pols can always find a pony in the pile of you-know-what. #fitn
1 hour agoDanFosterNRO Daniel Foster
How many Huntsman votes go to Romney? How many go home?
1 hour ago
Retweeted by LarrySabatoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Maybe some big areas are out, but looks to me like NH turnout is well below projection of 250,000, won’t even hit ’08’s 240,000. #fitn
1 hour agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Look at exit poll & see why we’ve stressed that if GOP doesn’t find a way to keep young Paul voters in the tent, Rs prob can’t win in ’12.
1 hour agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
We learned this evening just how much influence the NH Union Leader has.
1 hour agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Maybe the best news for Romney out of NH is that it isn’t any more obvious–maybe less–which conservative should become the anti-Romney.
2 hours agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Network news shows really pushed Huntsman as “surging, hot” candidate tonight; most started show with him. Guess not.
2 hours agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Huntsman’s 3rd place is a disappointment. 18% ok, but NH is his ideal territory. He ran for Governor of NH the way Santorum did in IA.
2 hours agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
We’ll see whether the precise numbers hold. Romney is about where he has to be, a little low perhaps. Paul doing very well.
2 hours agoLarrySabato Larry Sabato
Mitt Romney wins! And who the hell is surprised?
3 hours ago
–National political columnist Dick Polman is another superb analyst who is required reading for serious political junkies. A few of his Tweets:
DickPolman1 Dick Polman
By winning decisively, did Romney put the kibosh on his opponents’ Bain- bashing? #FITN
17 minutes agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
If Tim Pawlenty is eying the lousy numbers posted by the not-Romney dwarfs, I wonder if he’s tempted to take a 9-iron to his own head. #FITN
18 minutes agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Newt is up by 80 votes over Santorum. I believe that reflects the pro-Newt endorsement clout of Todd Palin. #FITN
24 minutes agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
The sour dour look on Newt’s face, in translation: “The nerve of those voters, refusing to recognize my transformational greatness.” #FITN
34 minutes agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Best news for Romney: all three conservative rivals vow to stay in the race – thus continuing to divide the not-Romney vote. #FITN
38 minutes agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Post-NH: Romney will get sucked into the usual South Carolina muck, but he’ll win the state that always validates the estab Republican.
43 minutes agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Glad that Newt will soldier on, because Calista’s hair always reminds me of vanilla ice cream. #FITN
56 minutes agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Waiting for Newt to say that he will postpone his campaign to put his face on Mt Rushmore until after South Carolina. #FITN
1 hour agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Romney tonite, on Obama: “He apologizes for America.” The fact-checkers demolished that lie a long time ago. But Mitt’s sticking to it #FITN
1 hour agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Any bets on whether Rick Perry can break 1000 votes by 10 pm? #FITN
1 hour agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Huntsman: “Here we go to South Carolina!” South Carolinians: “We’re gonna bury that Obama lackey.” #FITN
1 hour agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Key exit poll stat: Romney drawing a 33 percent plurality of self-ID’d “very conservative” voters. The coalescing has already begun. #FITN
1 hour agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Newt and Santorum are separated by 200 votes! A thrilling fight to avoid fifth place! It’s akin to watching an Astros-Orioles game. #FITN
1 hour agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Huntsman: “I think we’re in the hunt! Third place is a ticket to ride!” Reality: Stick a fork in him. #FITN
1 hour agoDickPolman1 Dick Polman
Romney, during his victory speech, used a Teleprompter….Wait, isn’t it right-wing gospel that the sole Teleprompter user is Obama?
1 hour ago
Mitt Romney’s broad-based victory in New Hampshire was built upon strong support from Republican voters and backing from enough independents to keep his rivals from mounting a serious challenge, exit polling data showed.
Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman were buoyed by a surge of independent voters, who made up 45% of the GOP primary electorate, up from just over one-third in 2008. Independents in New Hampshire can vote in either party’s primary.
Those voters helped push Mr. Paul to a second-place finish and Mr. Huntsman to a likely third-place showing. But Mr. Romney easily triumphed, because dissenting votes were so widely dispersed among his rivals.
The survey of Republican primary voters, conducted as people exited from polling places across the Granite State, found Mr. Romney’s weakest showing was among young voters who stampeded to support Mr. Paul, as they did in Iowa. Mr. Paul collected nearly half of the vote among 18-to-29-year-olds.
–Howard Fineman’s Huffington Post piece is a must read. Here is a chunk of it:
Let us now praise Mitt Romney: not for being exciting, creative or inspiring; not for being Kennedyesque, Reaganesque or even 2008 Obamaesque. Mitt Romney is none of those.
But he is a dogged, meticulously organized man of family and faith, who has been around the block in politics and business, (vicious when he has to be, dissembling when he has to be,) who is photogenic, well educated and well spoken, and, most important, has the good fortune to be in the right place at the right time.
His campaign slogan could be, “Romney: Because He is Available, Plausible and Not Entirely Objectionable.”
And it’s working.
Why? Because, after years of serial disappointments with politics and politicians, skeptical, weary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire seem to have tired of searching for a savior or a charismatically inspirational figure. (Even Ron Paul, who presides over the most enthusiastic rallies, is a cranky, anti-charismatic figure.)
Because many people see Romney’s family and personal history (one marriage and a lovely family) as evidence of decency — certainly more people than generally cynical reporters in the press corps appreciate.
Because Romney has been blessed with the weirdest, weakest and most self-destructive field of foes since Han Solo walked into the Star Wars bar.
Because Ron Paul is soaking up much of the anti-establishment fervor that might otherwise be aimed at Romney.
Because Romney has the backing of what remains of the GOP establishment, in Washington and elsewhere — people who have the wherewithal and the wisdom of decades of backing Bushes and Reagans.
Read it in its entirety.
—Hot Air’s Allahpundit on Romney’s speech:
Too soon to say, I think, how much the Bain attacks hurt or didn’t hurt but there’s some suggestive exit poll data. On the question of who ran the most unfair campaign, Gingrich finished first — but with just 26 percent of the vote. Romney finished a close second at 24 percent. I’d love to see what those numbers looked like two days ago before Newt started ripping on him for “looting.” Meanwhile, Romney won a plurality of voters who said they decided today. He took 32 percent; Huntsman finished 10 points behind in second. Unless and until the Bain question is polled directly by someone, we’ll have to squeeze hunches out of those numbers.
Here’s the clip [of Romney’s speech]. Somehow this is even more depressing than McCain’s victory in 2008, no? There was no tea-party revolution back then to be betrayed by nominating the godfather of the individual mandate, and the field, quite frankly, was stronger than this one. Huckabee was a more effective social-con populist than Santorum and Fred Thompson was a more effective southern “true conservative” alpha male than Perry. And McCain, for all his faults, was a war hero. Somehow we’ve backslid to the point where not only is one of the also-rans in that race the frontrunner now, he’s a juggernaut — the first Republican since Ford to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Despite the fact that only a small part of the party seems passionate about him, he’s 11 days and one win away from wrapping this race up. Unbelievable.
I think I’m writing in Tebow.
–CNN’s David Gergen, who served several Presidents, felt Romney’s speech was memorable and “the most important speech he made in his campaign”:
–A clear sign that Republicans will group around Romney. Fox News Sean Hannity, who is the ultimate partisan (hack) is already going after some of Romney’s GOP opponents. Talking Points Memo:
Presumably Team Romney’s plan to combat attacks over Bain Capital has always been to paint anyone raising the issue as a loony left-wing extremist.
However, the barrage has come earlier than expected, and from some unexpected opponents, including Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich.
That hasn’t stopped Romney’s backers from responding with their original plan. So tonight brought us some amazing moments. Who’d ever have thought you’d see Fox News’ Sean Hannity tell Perry he sounds “like something out of Occupy Wall Street”? Or Romney surrogate John Sununu dropping the “Socialist!” S-bomb on Newt? It happened, and you can see it here.
–The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol thinks the low turnout is troubling for GOPers:
Photo via Christopher Halloran / Shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.