Democratic Self-Loathing Puts Weiner Seat in Play **UPDATED**

WASHINGTON – Republicans don’t have the Democratic gene of self-loathing. They’re permanently self-righteous, which is why Sen. Vitter is still in the Senate.

In the hall of stupidity, former Rep. Anthony Weiner holds a special place. However, when you analyze his “crime” that’s what it comes down to, because there was no sex.

So, compliments of Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Steve Israel, Pres. Obama and the rest of the Democratic pack whose self-loathing made them jettison Rep. Anthony Weiner over an embarrassing and reckless act, Democrats may lose the seat.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It’s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43. – Turner Poised for Big Upset

Anthony Weiner might have lost reelection all on his own, but maybe not, because rehabilitation and forgiveness is a powerful political weapon. He’s also a tenacious campaigner, once beloved by his constituents, but also a fierce friend of Israel.

Segue to foreshadowing of some problems Republicans hope to churn up against Pres. Obama in 2012. Democratic candidate David Weprin is an Orthodox Jew who keeps kosher, but with Pres. Obama’s Israeli policy part of the special election tomorrow, a rebuke is part of this mix. From the New York Times back in July:

On Monday, former Mayor Edward I. Koch, a Democrat, endorsed the Republican candidate in the race, Bob Turner, a retired cable television executive, at a press conference at which he stood next to an Israeli flag. Mr. Koch has acknowledged that Mr. Weprin is a strong supporter of Israel, but argued that the election of Mr. Turner would serve as a rebuke to Mr. Obama for saying that Israel’s pre-1967 border should be the basis for a peace agreement.

The Jewish vote, which Anthony Weiner strongly held, while not siding with Obama on Israeli policy, is expected to be a big factor in tomorrow’s outcome, which today looks like an upset for Republicans.

Pres. Obama’s approval ratings in New York represent the first time he’s been in negative territory in his presidency. A stunning development for a Democratic president.

UPDATE: Good post over at DK on this race:

It’s not necessarily over for Weprin, but if one-time Obama voters are now showing up to vote Republican, that’s a pretty brutal sign. Coming on top of Siena’s poll which also had Turner up by six, it’s hard to see much cause for optimism.

Taylor Marsh is a Washington based political analyst, writer and commentator on national politics, foreign policy, and women in power. A veteran national politics writer, Taylor’s been writing on the web since 1996. She has reported from the White House, been profiled in the Washington Post, The New Republic, and has been seen on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, CNN, MSNBC, Al Jazeera English and Al Jazeera Arabic, as well as on radio across the dial and on satellite, including the BBC. Marsh lives in the Washington, D.C. area. This column is cross-posted from her blog.

         

12 Comments

  1. I still expect Weprin to win, this is one of those Lucy and the football things for the GOP.

  2. Well then, let it be said that Democrats do not suffer idiots from within and that Republicans are the embodiment of idiots within.

  3. Well, I don’t live in New York, but hearing from insider Democrats canvassing the mood is very glum today.

    That said, a lot can happen in 24 hours, Patrick, with the harshly negative attacks on Weprin opening an avenue for a backlash, though I haven’t heard that building yet. But again, there’s still time.

    heh-heh… good one, Allen.

    Bill Clinton & Cuomo are doing calls for Weprin.

    This seat should not even be in play.

    ps-See the update I added to my piece, which puts the race exactly where I believe it is today: advantage clearly with Turner.

  4. While I always salute your willingness to violate the “nothing-bad-about-Democrats-syndrome” that all the other liberal writers here conspicuously practice , you do seem to be afflicted with a case of bad analysis on this particular situation………….
     
    “Liberals argue that their candidate is struggling in the heavily Jewish district because Mr. Turner and former New York City Mayor Ed Koch have tagged Mr. Obama as anti-Israel. But Jews, who make up about 30% of the district, favor Mr. Weprin by a larger margin than any other specified demographic group, and only 16% of them say the candidate’s position on Israel will significantly influence their vote.
     
    Mr. Weprin’s bigger problem is that the election may hinge on the district’s 20% or so independent voters. The Siena poll shows independents favoring Mr. Turner by 38 points — and it’s not because of Mr. Obama’s foreign policy. Siena reports that 44% of independents say the candidate’s position on economic recovery is the most important factor in determining their vote. Only 6% of independents say the candidate’s position on Israel is important.”
     
    If only this was about Israel policy and Democrat’s personality disorders……….

  5. I stand by the analysis in the piece, ca.

    From PPP:

    The issue of Israel does appear to be having a major impact on this race. A plurality of voters- 37%- said that Israel was ‘very important’ in determining their votes. Turner is winning those folks by an amazing 71-22 margin. With everyone who doesn’t say Israel is a very important issue for them Weprin actually leads 52-36. Turner is in fact winning the Jewish vote by a 56-39 margin, very unusual for a Republican candidate. This seems to be rooted in deep unhappiness with Obama on this issue- only 30% of voters overall approve of how he’s handling Israel to 54% who disapprove and with Jewish voters his approval on Israel is 22% with 68 of voters disapproving. That has a lot to do with why Turner’s in such a strong position.

  6. Casual, I know you know the rule is dont attack the writer. Just debate the post. Appreciate it. Thanks

    archangel

  7. Absolutely…..allow me to rephrase…..your piece seems to rely on a bad analysis of the situation.

  8. Regardless, a close race will be a chill on Obama’s policies.

  9. This is a blue collar “Democratic” district and gay marriage is also an issue. A very pro gay marriage candidate was probably not a good idea.

  10. Former Rep. Weiner was justified in resigning. The defense given on his behalf by Mr. Marsh amounts to the old “but it wasn’t as bad as THAT person.” He was involved in an internet flirtation, took pics of himself that included partial nudity, then said that someone had hacked his Twitter account when he got caught. Whenever the word “cover-up” comes into the mix, that’s a death knell for a politician. He did the right thing by resigning. But there is forgiveness, too, and eventually, I think he’ll run again and win, maybe not for his old job, but for some other elected office.

  11. He should have stayed and Pelosi should have backed him.

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