Zelensky as Churchill, Biden as FDR

History never repeats itself exactly. However, since human nature and motivations remail unchanged, cyclical historical patterns emerge repeatedly. We are living through one of those cyclical repetitions right now. This repetition can be broadly conceptualized as another episode of authoritarianism versus democracy. It can also be conceptualized as a comparison between two specific time frames, the present compared to 1940-41, and in more personalized terms, with Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, taking on the role of Winston Churchill and Joe Biden in the role of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Between May 1940 to December 1941 Churchill continually pressed FDR for help, forcefully making the argument that Hitler’s conquest of Britain would ultimately lead to the enslavement of the entire world. FDR personally wanted to help Britain, but he was constrained by the overwhelming isolationism of American voters. Isolationism resonated in Congress which passed the Neutrality Acts, specifying that the United States would remain strictly neutral in the European war- meaning no help to any of the combatants. Over the year and a half period FDR found ways to partially circumvent the Neutrality Acts, therefore providing some help to Britain. Churchill, although grateful for whatever help Britain received, argued that it simply wasn’t nearly enough. He wanted the United States to declare war on Germany and bring its vast economic and potential military resources into the fight against Hitler.

FDR refused to ask Congress for a declaration of war, but by the spring of 1941 he quietly directed the United States Navy to begin providing protection for merchant ship convoys leaving the United States for the British Isles. Inevitably this decision led to armed confrontations between US Navy ships and German U-boats. This was a clear violation of the Neutrality Acts and it was as far as FDR was willing to go. The point being that Churchill’s eloquent pleading did not result in a United States declaration of war against Germany. An event unrelated to the European war got us into a war with Nazi Germany; the Japanese attack of Pearl Harbor, which triggered Hitler’s spontaneous declaration of war on the United States, giving FDR the rational he needed to get Congress to declare war on Germany.

Does this sound somewhat familiar?

Since the February Russian invasion of Ukraine Zelensky has been using modern media to appeal to Western governments for military and humanitarian aid. His powerful speeches have been favorably compared to Churchill’s for their inspirational quality. And they have had a positive impact- Western aid for Ukraine is constantly increasing. However, Zelensky, like Churchill, passionately insists that it is not enough. Zelensky has consistently asked for two things: a NATO-imposed no-fly zone over Ukraine, and the delivery of modern jet fighters to the Ukrainian Air Force. So far Joe Biden and our NATO allies have refused these requests. Biden, like FDR, is constrained, although his constraints are different. Americans generally favor aiding Ukraine, although they do not favor putting American ground forces in Ukraine. However, Biden’s major constraint is not American isolationism, it is the fact that Russia is a nuclear power. Biden and our allies have a dilemma- how much can we help Ukraine without triggering a nuclear war with Russia?

Biden’s recent meetings with NATO and EU officials exposed differences regarding the next tactical steps to take to stop the Russian invasion. Several Eastern European leaders suggested establishing a partial no-fly zone over western Ukraine, using the presence of refugees in the area as a humanitarian rationale for such a move. Clearly Biden and Western European leaders, in spite of everything they have done, are under pressure to do more. It is likely that doing more, such as imposing a no-fly zone or putting NATO troops into Ukraine, will only happen if Putin decides to escalate, by attacking a NATO country or using biological or nuclear weapons. Zelensky has emerged as a Churchillian leader for our times, but saving Ukrainian democracy from authoritarianism may depend on circumstances beyond his control.