Florida will be the next state to vote. That will be on January 31st. Watching it will probably be mildly interesting but, barring something unusual, Mitt Romney will likely win it handily. The most important reason is probably that Florida allows early mail-in ballots, and before the surprise in South Carolina, some some 150,000 people had already voted in that primary. Since Romney has been campaigning heavily there for many months, and poured millions into that market, and had workers chasing down voters and getting absentee ballots into their hands for some time now, we can probably safely assume that the lion’s share of those already went to Romney, with Ron Paul picking up a sizable contingent of whatever disaffected absentee ballots there were, with the others more or less evenly distributed between all the other candidates (including candidates who already dropped out). Romney likely goes into election day there already having a hundred thousand or so votes.
Furthermore, Florida’s primary is closed; Democrats and Independents cannot vote for or against Romney. They just don’t count. As Chris Stirewalt notes, South Carolina saw a surge in new primary voters last week; a huge swath of angry independents, disaffected Democrats, and normally-uninterested voters, of the “I’m mad as hell and I want change now!” variety, showed up to vote, and they did not go there to vote for Mitt Romney. Turnout was 35% higher than anything previously recorded in South Carolina, and those new voters seem to have mostly gone for whoever seemed most anti-establishment to them, and that happened to be Newt Gingrich. (Ron Paul supporters likely wail that he’s the true anti-establishment guy but everyone sane recognizes he really can’t win period.)
But something like that can’t happen in Florida. It’s a closed primary. If you are not already a registered Republican, you can’t vote in that primary no matter how energized or angry you are. If you aren’t already a registered Republican, you don’t get a say.
Florida Primary voters will therefore largely be people who already vote regularly in primaries, and mostly older voters who–angry or not–are “establishment” oriented. Most will have already been voting Republican for quite some time now, already know all these players thank you very much, and will tend to be more stodgy and less impulsive.
Between the closed primary, the extensive machine Romney’s already got in place, and the huge number of votes already cast, it appears that Florida’s in the bag. The only likely question is how much he’ll win by, not whether he will. The best any of his competitors can reasonably hope for is to show a strong second. Although a Romney loss there would likely cripple his campaign, it’s not likely to happen. The main question will be who comes in second place.
So what next? In February, there will be primaries and caucuses in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada. These are small states, and caucuses tend to be grueling affairs that only fairly committed and regular voters are likely to sit through. Whoever has the best ground game usually wins them. Missouri will be holding a primary, but, its results will be advisory-only, the real delegates won’t be chosen til a caucus in March. The biggest day to watch will be February 28, when both Arizona and Michigan hold primaries where anyone can request a Republican ballot, so newly-energized and independent-minded voters can easily crash the gates like they did in South Carolina. Of the them all, Michigan is by far the biggest prize, but Michigan and Arizona are both the most likely to set the stage for a Romney upset.
And there are reasons for Romney to suspect that despite being born in Michigan, he might not win there. (See discussion here.)
My prediction, for what it’s worth: Santorum comes in fourth in Florida and drops out. Gingrich comes in second, with Ron Paul in third. And the two remaining major candidates (Gingrich and Romney) start slugging it out hard in Michigan while getting ready for Super Tuesday on March 6.
(This item cross-posted to Dean’s World.)
*Update*: Florida will be the next state to vote. That will be on January 31st. Watching it will probably be mildly interesting but, barring something unusual, Mitt Romney will likely win it handily. The most important reason is probably that Florida allows early mail-in ballots, and before the surprise in South Carolina, some some 150,000 people had already voted in that primary. Since Romney has been campaigning heavily there for many months, and poured millions into that market, and had workers chasing down voters and getting absentee ballots into their hands for some time now, we can probably safely assume that the lion’s share of those already went to Romney, with Ron Paul picking up a sizable contingent of whatever disaffected absentee ballots there were, with the others more or less evenly distributed between all the other candidates (including candidates who already dropped out). Romney likely goes into election day there already having a hundred thousand or so votes.
Furthermore, Florida’s primary is closed; Democrats and Independents cannot vote for or against Romney. They just don’t count. As Chris Stirewalt notes, South Carolina saw a surge in new primary voters last week; a huge swath of angry independents, disaffected Democrats, and normally-uninterested voters, of the “I’m mad as hell and I want change now!” variety, showed up to vote, and they did not go there to vote for Mitt Romney. Turnout was 35% higher than anything previously recorded in South Carolina, and those new voters seem to have mostly gone for whoever seemed most anti-establishment to them, and that happened to be Newt Gingrich. (Ron Paul supporters likely wail that he’s the true anti-establishment guy but everyone sane recognizes he really can’t win period.)
But something like that can’t happen in Florida. It’s a closed primary. If you are not already a registered Republican, you can’t vote in that primary no matter how energized or angry you are. If you aren’t already a registered Republican, you don’t get a say.
Florida Primary voters will therefore largely be people who already vote regularly in primaries, and mostly older voters who–angry or not–are “establishment” oriented. Most will have already been voting Republican for quite some time now, already know all these players thank you very much, and will tend to be more stodgy and less impulsive.
Between the closed primary, the extensive machine Romney’s already got in place, and the huge number of votes already cast, it appears that Florida’s in the bag. The only likely question is how much he’ll win by, not whether he will. The best any of his competitors can reasonably hope for is to show a strong second. Although a Romney loss there would likely cripple his campaign, it’s not likely to happen. The main question will be who comes in second place.
So what next? In February, there will be primaries and caucuses in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada. These are small states, and caucuses tend to be grueling affairs that only fairly committed and regular voters are likely to sit through. Whoever has the best ground game usually wins them. Missouri will be holding a primary, but, its results will be advisory-only, the real delegates won’t be chosen til a caucus in March. The biggest day to watch will be February 28, when both Arizona and Michigan hold primaries where anyone can request a Republican ballot, so newly-energized and independent-minded voters can easily crash the gates like they did in South Carolina. Of the them all, Michigan is by far the biggest prize, but Michigan and Arizona are both the most likely to set the stage for a Romney upset.
And there are reasons for Romney to suspect that despite being born in Michigan, he might not win there. (See discussion here.)
My prediction, for what it’s worth: Santorum comes in fourth in Florida and drops out. Gingrich comes in second, with Ron Paul in third. And the two remaining major candidates (Gingrich and Romney) start slugging it out hard in Michigan while getting ready for Super Tuesday on March 6.
(This item cross-posted to The Moderate Voice.)
*Update*: A look at polling data this morning (January 25) suggests I may be wrong about Florida being a lock for Romney. It may be that it’s a closed primary, and it may be that Romney has an edge with all those mail-in ballots already cast, but Gingrich is slightly ahead there at the moment. I believe a strong second place showing is all Gingrich needs to remain a serious challenge, but a win there would be a truly startling upset and would almost certainly propel a massive infusion of new cash and volunteers into Gingrich’s camp and add real teeth to the charge that Romney is not “most electable.” The question will be asked: If he can’t win in Florida, where can he win at all outside of New England?
Dean Esmay is the author of Methuselah’s Daughter. He has contributed to Dean’s World, Huffington Post, A Voice for Men, Pajamas Media. Neither left nor right wing, neither libertarian nor socialist.