UPDATE:
The article below focused on the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic hurricane basins.
However, there is another region of hurricane activity that affects Americans and Central Americans: the Eastern Pacific region.
Although not as “prolific” as the one on the other side of the North-Central American continent, this region has produced its share of deadly and damaging hurricanes, most of them impacting Mexico.
But, while the Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the Eastern Pacific season started May 15.
And, right on cue, now-hurricane Agatha formed off Mexico’s southern Pacific coast on Saturday and is now poised to make landfall on the southwestern Mexican coast as a category 2 hurricane threatening the coast with “dangerous coastal flooding…life-threatening, hurricane force winds…heavy rains…a threat of flash floods and mudslides.
Original Post:
If your name is included in the following list, you could be destined to become (in)famous later this year:
Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter.
Not on the list? Be patient. you may get another chance in 2023 if your name is Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince or Whitney.
These are two of the six rotating lists of names maintained by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for aspiring storms in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic basin. The WMO maintains such lists of “appropriate” names for each of the tropical cyclone basins.
The rules for names vary by region. In the western North Pacific and the South China Sea region each country contributes names. They are often colorful and characteristic of the country.
Here are some examples:
Republic of Korea: “Jebi” – Swallow.
Thailand: “Prapiroon” – God of rain.
Micronesia: “Soulik” – Traditional Pohnpe chief’s title.
Cambodia: “Kong-rey” – Pretty girl in Khmer legend/the name of mountain.
Lao: “Leepi” – The most beautiful waterfall at the end of Southern of Lao.
China: “Bailu” – A white deer, which stands for auspiciousness in the Chinese language.
Hong Kong: “Yun-yeung“- A species of duck (Aix galericulata), also the vernacular name of a popular drink in Hong Kong prepared by mixing tea with coffee.
I had my “15 minutes of fame” in 2019 when “tropical wave” Dorian became “an extremely powerful and catastrophic Category 5 Atlantic hurricane,” tying with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane for the strongest landfall in the Atlantic Basin — even more powerful in this category than Hurricane Wilma with whom my family and I had an up-close-and-personal encounter in 2005.
If your name has already been on a list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names, it may reappear in another six years unless your namesake has been especially notorious, has been “so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity.” If so, the name is “retired.”
That is why one will not see infamous storm names such as Mitch (Honduras, 1998), Katrina (USA, 2005), Sandy (USA, 2012), Irma and Maria (Caribbean, 2017), Mangkhut (Philippines, 2018) and others on lists of future storm names for their respective tropical cyclone basins. Dorian was retired in 2019 and will be replaced by Dexter in 2025.
There are typically 21 names on each list. However, the 2020 and 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane seasons were so active (producing 30 named storms in 2020 and 21 in 2021) that the names on the list were exhausted and the Greek alphabet was used for only the second and third time. The first time this occurred was in 2005, according to the WMO.
The WMO has now decided that the Greek alphabet will not be used in the future because “it creates a distraction from the communication of hazard and storm warnings and is potentially confusing.” Instead, the WMO is adding an “evergreen” supplemental list of beautiful names such as, for the Atlantic: Adria, Caridad, Isla, Jacobus, Lucio, Makayla, Pax, Tayshaun and Viviana.
But why use only 21 letters of the alphabet?
The WMO explains: “Because of how hard it is to find a name that starts with Q, U, X, Y and Z (and can translate into local languages) for each of the six rotating lists.”
Here are a few more tidbits:
• In total, 93 names have now been retired from the Atlantic basin list since 1953, when storms began to be named under the current system.
• English, French and Spanish names are used in balance on the list to reflect the geographical coverage of Atlantic and Caribbean storms.
• The list is gender balanced and respectful of societal sensitivities.
Finally, no weather article would be complete without a forecast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The hurricane season starts June 1.
Specifically, NOAA expects as many as 10 hurricanes to possibly form. An average season typically spawns seven hurricanes.
Overall, 14 to 21 named storms will develop, says NOAA. These numbers include tropical storms, which contain wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. Storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph.
NOAA attributes the increased activity to several climate factors, “including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.”
Thus, paraphrasing (and totally misconstruing) some classic words, “Beware the ‘Ides’ of June through November,” if your vacation plans include a seaside vacation.
Sources:
World Meteorological Organization
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
