Tonight, all across Iowa, Republican voters are gathering in churches, libraries and school gyms to cast their votes for the Iowa Republican Party’s nominee for President. We know this as “the Iowa caucus.”
Caucuses, however, are exclusive meetings for “strategic purposes.” That might be legal mediation, or it could be political party discussions, whether involving elected representatives or citizens.
Every four years the term caucus takes on a special meaning in a handful of states.
Local members of a political party gather in person to select a nominee for the office of President of the United States. The first of these is tonight in Iowa, followed by
- February 8: Nevada and the Virgin Islands, Republican Party
- March 2: Idaho, Michigan and Missouri, Republican Party
- August 8: Guam, Democratic Party
Five states, two territories.
In every other state and territory, the Republican and Democratic parties have elected (no pun intended) to use official voting apparatus – from distributing ballots to their final tally – to conduct a political primary.
One key to both the caucus and the primary is exclusivity: not everyone can participate. Political parties in each state determine who can vote and when they register to participate. Although we call these nominating mechanism “elections” (colloquially), they are not open to all citizens which is how most of us think of “elections.”
In addition, caucuses occur in a narrow window of time. Iowa voters have not been representative in recent elections.
Noting that all this hullabaloo is over fewer than 100,000 voters in the midst of a deep freeze in Iowa… in a country of 330 million plus people.
— Susan Glasser (@sbg1) January 16, 2024
They picked Ted Cruz in 2016; Rick Santorum in 2012; and Mike Huckabee in 2008. None won the nomination or the vice presidential slot.
The Iowa Democratic party decided to opt out of using caucuses for nominations. We’ll know their mail-ballot primary on Super Tuesday, March 5.
What do Trump’s Iowa supporters think and believe?
A 71-year-old retired nurse told Atlantic reporter McKay Coppins that President Biden “most definitely” stole the 2020 election at a Trump rally in Mason City, Iowa. She continued:
“The military is supposed to be for the people, against tyrannical governments. I hope he’s guiding the military to be able to step in and do what they need to do. Because right now, I’d say government’s very tyrannical.” If the Democrats try to steal the election again in 2024, she told me, the Trump-sympathetic elements of the military might need to seize control.
Renowned political pollster J. Ann Selzer joined The Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell on Saturday to discuss the Iowa caucus and results from her firm’s focus groups featuring Trump supporters.
Trump, for his supporters, he makes politics fun.
“I think this part is also not understood so well,” Selzer said. “Trump… makes politics fun [for his supporters]. It’s entertaining. You go to the rally. You don’t know what he’s going to say. You’re probably going to like it. It’s probably gonna make you laugh. There might be things that make you a little uncomfortable but that’s part of the show. He has reinvented how to do politics that translate to a grassroots level without doing grassroots (emphasis added).”
Selzer told Longwell that in December, her company shared direct quotes with focus group participants and asked for reactions. “These were designed to be on the inflammatory side.” She continued, “The data suggest that all of these things that are happening, and all of these things that he is saying, [are] drumming up more support rather than tamping down support.” It’s also “deepening existing support.”
Excerpts from a lightly edited transcript (via Microsoft Office) follow.
Ann: I do focus groups… what I find interesting is listening to people think their way through things and better understanding how they have arrived at the positions that they come to.
First of all, [I tell them] “I want you all to know that you voted for Donald Trump in the last election, and then there’s like a sigh of relief like they think, OK, I don’t have to fight. I’m not going to be in a fight.” … The best way to do a political focus group, I think, especially with the Republicans, is to let them know it’s a safe space. That sigh of relief. And they’re only going to tell you truths when they feel like they’re around other people who understand because they do feel judged for things like voting for Trump.
Sarah: Let’s listen to how people talk about Trump.
Voter 1: I don’t like necessarily how he can sometimes, like, speak to people or treat people…But again, at the end of the day, it’s about the president… it comes down to who’s going to take care of the country the best way.
Voter 2: I just know what Trump offered when he was there last time. And I know we will get the same.
Voter 3: This is gonna sound bad, but I do like Trump bullying people. And you know, because you are actually bringing out flaws and other people and a lot of the learning process is like, painful.
Voter 4: Basically what it comes down to is it’s Trump versus the deep State… Who was in that old J6 crowd inciting the whole thing?
Voter 5: [About January 6th] For those of you to have children. You ever put one excited child in a room with kids who are maybe just kind of neutral? All of them get excited. All of them get rowdy, and I feel like that was probably kind of a similar chain of events that happened. No, I don’t think that he was up there using code words to say like all right, team. Time to attack.
Sarah:: Those are sort of gobsmacking moments, but also you hear … “I don’t think a woman should be president.”
Watch the episode on YouTube:
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Known for gnawing at complex questions like a terrier with a bone. Digital evangelist, writer, teacher. Transplanted Southerner; teach newbies to ride motorcycles. @kegill (Twitter and Mastodon.social); wiredpen.com