At this point it looks like Putin will succeed in conquering and controlling a portion of Ukraine. Furthermore, the Biden’s administration stated goal of ‘weakening Russia’ is not yet accomplished; the Russians are still attacking in Ukraine. The West has done much to support Ukraine but it is clearly not enough. What more can we do?

A starting point would be to fast-track Ukraine into NATO. Why are we delaying this obvious step? Ukraine meets the qualifications to become a NATO member. It is a European country that borders other NATO countries. More importantly, it is moving toward democracy. In the last 50 years no country has fought harder to become and maintain a democracy than Ukraine, engaging in two pro-democracy revolutions, in 1995 and 2004. Ukrainian democratic progress has occurred despite unrelenting pressure from Russia. Putin attempts to undermine Ukrainian democracy from within, and, starting in 2014, attack Ukraine militarily.

The hesitation to make Ukraine a NATO member apparently has nothing to do with Ukraine itself, but primarily with Putin’s threat to go nuclear. However he has been threatening to go nuclear since early in the invasion, and he has not done so yet. Once Ukraine is a NATO member there are three ways to use that membership to help Ukraine. The war has settled into a stable pattern, with clear front lines existing in eastern and southern Ukraine. NATO troops inserted into Ukraine should not be placed on the front lines where they would fight Russians. Instead NATO troops should form defensive positions behind the front lines. The NATO message to Putin would be this: we do not want to get into a war with Russia, but our troops will defend themselves if Russians push further into Ukraine.

A second similar intervention could occur in the air. Publicly publish the intention to establish a no-fly zone, pertaining to planes, drones and missiles, over all of Ukraine that has not yet been conquered by the Russians. Implement the no-fly zone several weeks after declaring the policy. Again the message to Putin would be that we do not want war with Russia, but our planes will defend themselves if attacked inside the no-fly zone.

Finally, a third intervention could be made in the Black Sea. In spite of agreeing to a grain-shipping deal with Ukraine, the Russians seem intent on sabotaging that deal. NATO warships could enter the Black Sea to establish a safe corridor for grains ships to leave Ukrainian ports. The message? We do not seek to attack Russian ships, but we will defend ourselves and the grain ships from being high-jacked or sunk.

These interventions are assertive without being provocatively irrational. If Putin wants to continue his push into Ukraine he would risk attacking NATO forces. The Russian economy and military is tiny compared to the combined NATO economies and militaries. Surely Putin knows this. Ukraine membership in NATO and these three interventions would leave Putin with the following choices. He could withdraw Russian forces from eastern and southern Ukraine, including Crimea, ending the war.

He is unlikely to do this because his loss of ‘face’ in Russia and globally would be high. He could continue the stalemate slugfest with Ukraine, just maintaining control over already conquered territory, while avoiding combat with NATO forces. This is Putin’s most likely option, but it assumes that Ukraine is not capable of counterattacking and reclaiming the conquered territories.

His third choice is to go nuclear to some degree, hoping that NATO will not respond in kind and would withdraw its forces from Ukraine. Would Putin be this irrationally stupid? Dictators commonly think that democracies are weak and irresolute, unable to decisively respond to aggression. In this case Putin has been proven wrong: the United States and NATO has responded decisively to Russian aggression in Ukraine.

A rational Putin would assume that NATO would respond with nuclear weapons at whatever level Russia initiated. Is Putin willing to see Mother Russia destroyed in a nuclear holocaust because of his ambition to reestablish the Russian Empire?