Two new polls show the 2012 Presidential election battle between Democratic President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican nominee former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has tightened — and a shift in voters earlier decision to toss the Congress out. Some of the key findings in these polls:
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election.
Mitt Romney edged out President Barack Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, a number well within the margin of error, as Republicans rapidly consolidate behind the likely GOP nominee.
The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO’s February’s poll.
But there are suggestions that these numbers are extremely fluid: Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on “sharing your values.” But enduring concern about the economy — by far the most important issue to voters — keeps the president in a tenuous position despite employment numbers that show slight but steady improvement.
While approval of Congress remains in the basement at 13 percent, the poll shows that voters aren’t inclined to throw all the bums out in another major push for change.
The GOP has taken a narrow 45 percent to 43 percent lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to the poll, and 65 percent believe Republicans will continue to control the House majority after the election. Forty-one percent believe Democrats will keep the Senate majority.
Despite the buzz about who will be Romney’s vice presidential pick, nearly two-thirds of respondents said the vice presidential nominee will not affect their vote. Of the 35 percent who said it will have an impact, just 7 percent described the veep choice as extremely important to their decision.
A new USA Today/Gallup Poll “shows big challenges for each side: Mitt Romney in generating enthusiasm and a personal connection with his supporters, and Barack Obama in convincing Americans he should be trusted to manage a fragile economy.”
In the first USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll conducted since Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney and President Barack Obama are nearly tied — 45% vs. 47%, respectively — among registered voters in the 12 battleground states that make up the poll.
The presumptive Republican nominee is better positioned today than he was in March, when USA Today/Gallup found Obama leading by nine percentage points among swing-state voters. Romney now roughly matches his standing earlier in the year, before he secured the Republican nomination.
Democrats have taken the lead in the enthusiasm gap:
While Obama edges out Romney by two points in the overall preferences of swing-state registered voters, he has a four-point advantage with respect to solid supporters: 36% of swing-state voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama in November, while 32% are certain they will vote for Romney. Each candidate’s remaining supporters — the 11% who favor Obama and the 13% favoring Romney — say there is a chance they could change their mind between now and the election. An additional 7% of voters are undecided, meaning a total of 31% of swing-state voters are not firmly committed at this time.
Obama’s swing-state prospects also look a bit brighter than Romney’s on the basis of voter enthusiasm. More than half of Obama’s supporters, 55%, are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this year’s presidential election, up from 49% saying this in March. By contrast, 46% of Romney’s supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic, unchanged from 47% in March. Today’s figures reflect a reversal from January, when 55% of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 50% of Obama voters.
Here’s what Gallup says is the bottom line of their poll:
The swing states are currently as closely divided as one would expect, considering their divided political demographics. Romney’s position does not appear quite as competitive, however, when one considers that his support is a bit softer than Obama’s, with slightly fewer saying they are “certain” to vote for him. Additionally, Romney’s voters lag behind Obama’s in enthusiasm about voting in the election, a switch from January.
If Obama’s advantage on enthusiasm continues, it could benefit him in voter turnout on Election Day. The key to these patterns, of course, is if they continue. USA Today and Gallup will be monitoring these factors, and more, throughout the campaign.
Here’s First Read’s analysis of the polls:
*** Portending a close race: Two CW-setting polls for the week are out this morning show the race between Obama and Romney a dead heat. A Politico/GWU poll shows Romney up 48%-47%. And a USA/Today Gallup swing-state poll shows Obama up 47%-45%. Both are within the margin of error. A reminder that this is a close race, and is likely going to BE a close race. By the way, speaking of what happens in “close” races; one other thing that jumped out at us at the weekend rallies was just how far ahead the Obama campaign is of the Romney campaign when it comes to organizing on the ground. It’s not even close on this front; It’s amazing how in just eight short years, the Republicans have allowed one of their great strengths from 2004 (field organizing) to simply disappear. If a close election is decided on mechanics: advantage Obama. By the way, with all this back-n-forth on crowd sizes — it’s fair to say Obama ’08 would have out-drawn Obama ’12 in both cities. But the problem for the GOP is that Obama ’12 still outdraws Romney ’12… and by a LOT. Will Romney address a crowd as large as Obama did on Saturday before Tampa?
Here’s a graph that shows Pollster’s current average of polls:
UPDATE: TPM argues that polls in swing states actually undescore an Obama strength:
President Obama’s first three and a half years in office have been fraught with economic stagnation unseen for decades. The signature achievement from his first term, health care reform, remains unpopular with the American people (although before it’s been fully implemented). And his approval rating, while even over the last two months, was underwater for most of 2011.
Yet last week, Quinnipiac University released three polls showing Obama ahead in two major swing states, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and trailing by a single point to former Massachusetts Gov. and likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Florida. Why?
“This is an election about more than the economy — it’s about leadership,” Michael Dimock, associate director of research for the Pew Research Center told TPM. “While he’s [President Obama] been a divisive president, he has built up a certain amount of public trust. Romney is still unknown to many people, and what people have heard hasn’t been particularly positive.”
The Quinnipiac numbers revealed an interesting trend — in Florida, when pollsters asked voters who would be better on the economy, Romney had a nine point edge. In the general election match up, he bested Obama by a single point. In Ohio, Romney only had a four point lead on who was better to handle the nation’s economy, which wasn’t enough to get by Obama in the state, who had a two point advantage overall. And in Pennsylvania, Obama had a one point lead on the economy, which turned into a healthy eight percent margin in the head-to-head.
Their graphic:
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.