The Democratic Party clearly has a front-runner for the 2008 nomination, since a new TIME poll fits into some earlier findings…and now it’s an early trend:
Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner to win the Democratic party’s nomination for President in 2008, but the Republican race will be a close contest between Senator John McCain and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani — with McCain edging Giuliani by a three- to four-point margin. And a presidential face-off between Clinton and McCain, right now, would be close to a dead heat. Those are some of the key findings of a new TIME poll earlier this week that canvassed a random sample of 1,064 registered voters by phone.
Despite the buzz generated by Senator Barack Obama entering the race, the survey found that Senator Clinton would beat him for the Democratic nomination by a margin of 40% to 21%. Senator John Edwards is a distant third with 11%. Obama clearly suffers a disadvantage in profile among likely voters, with only 51% indicating that they knew enough about him to form an opinion, compared with 94% saying the same of Hillary Clinton. In Obama’s favor, however, is his far lower negative ratings. While 58% of voters familiar with Hillary Clinton have a positive view of her, 41% give her negative marks, for a net favorability score of +17. By contrast, Obama’s net favorability score is +47. On the Republican side, Giuliani has a net favorability rating of +68, with only 14% having a negative view of him. McCain’s net favorability score is +45.
McCain, however, holds a narrow lead of 30% to 26% over Giuliani for the GOP nomination. A race between McCain and Clinton would be a virtual tie (47%-47%), according to the poll, while McCain would beat either Obama or Senator John Edwards by a 7-point margin.
TIME notes that it isn’t clear sailing for Ms. Clinton. Her popularity doesn’t translate across party lines, as Giuliani’s or McCain’s does. In other words: she starts the race as the clear Democratic favorite but has to work on smoothing out perceptions of her that cause her to remain a polarizing figure (her appealing and accessible website announcement was an excellent start). This can be done but, like McCain, she’s going to have to adroitly walk a shaky political tightrope within her own party to sew up the nomination.
McCain has to rope in the conservatives, who don’t trust him over some of his past-stances on social issues; Senator Clinton has to rope in the Democratic Party’s left, which is in-effect demanding “I was wrong!” statements on the war. “Please forgive me, I was wrong!” has become a kind of modern demand for political-groveling on the part of the politico who took the now-rejected stand and an exercise in triumphalistic chest-beating for some of those who demand it.
TIME also finds Giuliani enjoys the greatest across-the-lines party support, something that could vanish once he formally announces and is slugging it out in the primaries. In other good news for H.C., TIME finds that, if people are asked whom they’d most like to have dinner with, it’s Bill Clinton first, then Hillary — not a bad standing. (Of course, many respondents would probably also add that if they had dinner with Bill Clinton they’d want to go out and party with him afterward as well…)
OUTLOOK: These poll findings mean Hillary Clinton can expect gobs of media coverage, media scrutiny, increased attacks by conservative talk-show hosts, an infusion of more money, and top staffers. If it holds up, Obama’s name will likely continue to be heard — as a Vice Presidential candidate. A Clinton/Obama ticket would indeed be a milestone and it’ll be interesting to see if the party would take “the risk” and opt for that. CAUTION: The election is far away. Political history is littered with the names of front-runners who bungled, fizzled-out, or were like the New Coke: a product that looked great on paper but, when customers got to choose, was rejected.
SIGNIFICANCE: H.C. will be challenged by and pressured by her party’s left more than ever, unless she begs for forgiveness for her earlier vote and statements on the Iraq War. But she boasts the Democratic Party’s best on-staff (professional) and informal (her husband) political advisors, the party’s fattest bankroll, and the most intricate and enthusiastically loyal network of supporters out there. She now joins House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Harry Reid as a prime voice of the Democratic Party. But it ain’t over ’til it’s over — and it has barely just begun…
UPDATE: Meanwhile, on the Internet, it looks like Hillary Clinton’s folks intend to use cyberspace in a big way. For instance, they’re already looking for Guest Posts on her upcoming weblog. (The Blogad at right is now even asking for them..)
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.