President Joe Biden led NATO in reaffirming steadfast military support for Ukraine at the recent summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. But cracks have already appeared in how far his allies are willing to go in providing unconditional backing to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s brutally embattled country.
Zelensky, who was at the summit, put urgent pressure to get a clear pledge on Ukraine’s rapid path to full NATO membership, which he failed to obtain. He also wants many more high-tech weapons including F16 warplanes, which he is likely to get but they may take some time to arrive and become operational.
Somewhat irritated, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace commented during the summit that Ukraine should be more grateful for the military support it has already received. “You know, we’re not Amazon,” he said. A few days earlier, Biden told CNN that Ukraine could not be admitted to NATO during the invasion because that would force the allies to join the war against Russia.
Finally, a compromise summit statement said NATO would invite Ukraine to join when “allies agree and conditions are met”. That could mean anything. A disappointed Zelensky called the ambiguity “absurd”.
Waters were muddied further by the details of a European Union poll showing tepid support for Ukraine in Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary and Slovakia. They have doubts, probably supported by other silent populations, regarding paying for more military equipment for Ukraine and making it an EU candidate member. A limited Pew survey showed that only 11 per cent of respondents in Hungary, 28 per cent in Greece and 38 per cent in Italy said yes, when asked if they had confidence that Zelensky would “do the right thing” in world affairs.
Biden has had outstanding success so far in creating solidarity among NATO members to buttress Ukraine’s fight against Vladimir Putin’s invasion. But the edges are fraying and could undermine his ability to simultaneously handle China’s aggressivity in the Indo-Pacific. That could harm his prospects in the November 2024 presidential elections.
It may sound counterintuitive but he can find backing from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s deft handling of a virtual summit of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which Modi presided a few days after his successful state visit to Washington.
Created in 2001, the SCO is a military and political organization aimed at maintaining peace, security and stability in the Eurasian and Asian regions. Its nine members are China, Russia, Kazakhstan, India, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Belarus is in line for membership soon. As such, the SCO is now at the core of global affairs and Biden’s concerns as he tilts towards the east to face China’s growing power.
Modi steered the summit away from assertions of support for Putin’s war in Ukraine and direct or indirect criticism of the US. The New Delhi Declaration signed by all members pledges to “counter the activities of terrorist, separatist and extremist groups, paying special attention to preventing the spread of religious intolerance, aggressive nationalism, ethnic and racial discrimination, xenophobia, ideas of fascism and chauvinism.” Washington could agree with this.
A thematic joint statement emphasized the need to counter radicalization leading to separatism, extremism, and terrorism. A second called for cooperation in digital transformation of the region. Both themes are on Biden’s agenda.
The New Delhi Declaration also underlined the “territorial integrity of states” and “non-use of force or threats to use force”. It reaffirmed “commitment to peaceful settlement of disagreements and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultations.” These are boilerplate but do indicate absence of collective aggressive intent in the SCO towards the US and its allies despite including China, Russia and Iran as key members.
So long as India’s presence maintains the SCO’s peaceful intent and stops it from pursuing Russia and China’s military agendas, Biden will be able to pursue his affirmative policies with a little less worry about violent surprises from Moscow and Beijing.
The SCO is not an embryo for a military alliance but could morph into one without the steadying hands of India, the biggest country after China, and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In rotation, its next president will be Kazakhstan.