The dust has finally begun to settle, since Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates unveiled his “controversial” defense budget proposal a little over a week ago,
In his proposed budget, Gates is shifting billions of defense dollars from strategic deterrence and future large scale war fighting programs toward systems and equipment designed to help fight and win the wars we are actually engaged in today—such as in Iraq and, more important now, in Afghanistan. Also, to fight what the Pentagon is calling “complex, hybrid wars” in which adversaries combine guerrilla tactics with conventional weapons such as antitank guided missiles.
Today, in a speech at the Air War College, at Maxwell-Gunter Air Force Base, Alabama, Gates explained it in a slightly different way:
Another theme underlying my recommendations is the need to think about future conflicts in a different way. To recognize that the black and white distinction between irregular war and conventional war is an outdated model. We must understand that we face a more complex future than that, a future where all conflict will range along a broad spectrum of operations and lethality. Where near-peers will use irregular or asymmetric tactics and non-state actors may have weapons of mass destruction or sophisticated missiles as well as AK-47s and RPGs. This kind of warfare will require capabilities with the maximum possible flexibility to deal with the widest possible range of conflict.
A potential victim of such new thinking is the huge F-22 “Raptor” combat fighter program.
Back during the Cold War, when massive air-to-air/air-to-ground battles were foreseen with the Soviet Union, the U.S. launched the ambitious F-22 program, calling for over 600 of these advanced, stealthy war-fighting aircraft. But just seven months after contracts were awarded, the Soviet Union collapsed.
Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the F-22, has so far built 135 F-22s; 48 are presently under construction and, under Gates’ proposed budget, four more F-22s are to be built, after which the production line would be closed.
Critics of the F-22 program claim that, along with Gates’ vision for fighting more limited wars, the U.S. has yet to use the F-22 for a single combat mission in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Again, Gates today at Maxwell-Gunter:
When examining the issue of air supremacy, we had to ask, what is the right mix of weapons to deal with the span of threats? What are the things that the F-22, and only the F-22, can do – and where would it be required? There is no doubt that the F-22 has unique capabilities that we need – the penetration and defeat of an advanced enemy air defense and fighter fleet. But, the F-22 is, in effect, a niche, silver-bullet solution required for a limited number of scenarios – to overcome advanced enemy fighters and air defense systems. In assessing the F-22 requirement, we also considered the advanced stealth and superior air-to-ground capabilities provided by the fifth-generation F-35s now being accelerated in this budget, the growing capability and range of unmanned platforms like the Reaper, and other systems in the Air Force and in other services. I also considered the fact that Russia is probably 6 years away from Initial Operating Capability of a fifth-generation fighter and the Chinese are 10 to 12 years away. By then we will have more than 1,000 fifth-generation fighters in our inventory. In light of all these factors, and on the recommendation of the Air Force secretary and chief of staff, I concluded that 183 – the program of record since 2005 – plus four would be a sufficient number to meet requirements. To be clear, the F-22 program of record as codified in the FY 2005 budget (and all budgets since) will be completed, and not cut as many have said and reported.
As I mentioned, the dust is settling on Gates’ proposal, but it is bound to start flying again—perhaps develop into a full-fledged dust storm—when Congress begins to seriously debate the proposals.
While there are other significant cuts in military aircraft and other military programs in Gates’ proposed budget, few are more sensitive and controversial than the F-22 program. There are many powerful individuals and groups fiercely supporting it for both economic and national security reasons.
For example, many claim that, if the program is terminated, approximately 100,000 aerospace jobs will be lost at a cost of more than $12 billion in national economy activity across 44 states.
And many defense experts claim that such a large cutback in F-22 production will seriously jeopardize our continued air dominance capabilities and, consequently, our national security.
Several of those reasons have been discussed in previous posts on this subject (here, here and here).
The battle lines for the defense budget, and the F-22 program, have clearly been drawn.
Newsweek’s Fareed Zakaria, who asks, “Is Robert Gates a Genius?” and obviously admires Gates and supports most of his plans, puts it this way:
If you’re wondering where to come down on the Gates plan, here’s a simple guide: John McCain, the most thoughtful, reform-minded legislator on military issues, “strongly supports” it. Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe—who has compared the EPA to the Gestapo, Carol Browner to Tokyo Rose and environmentalists to the Third Reich—warns that it will lead to the “disarming of America.” You choose.
Strong words!
The Washington Post puts it in somewhat more congenial terms.
In its April 14, “Hill Response to Plans Pleases Pentagon Chief,” the Post says:
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Tuesday that he has been “pleasantly surprised” by the response from lawmakers to his plans for shifting billions of dollars in Pentagon spending toward programs of immediate benefit to today’s wars.
“It seems to me that a number of the responses have been thoughtful, and [lawmakers] have been willing to take this seriously and in the vein it was intended,” Gates told reporters traveling with him.
Gates also has his military backers. In his speech today, he mentioned he had the support of his Air Force Secretary and his Air Force Chief of Staff—as one would expect.
And yes, in an April 13 Op-Ed in the Washington Post, Secretary of the Air Force Michael Donley and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz, wrote, in part:
The debate over whether to continue production of the F-22 Raptor has been one of the most politically charged and controversial budget issues in recent memory, spawning lobbying efforts that include contractor-sponsored newspaper ads and letter-writing campaigns.
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The F-22 and F-35 will work together in the coming years. Each is optimized for its respective air-to-air and air-to-ground role, but both have multi-role capability, and future upgrades to the F-22 fleet are already planned. We considered whether F-22 production should be extended as insurance while the F-35 program grows to full production. Analysis showed that overlapping F-22 and F-35 production would not only be expensive but that while the F-35 may still experience some growing pains, there is little risk of a catastrophic failure in its production line.
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We support the final four F-22s proposed in the fiscal 2009 supplemental request, as this will aid the long-term viability of the F-22 fleet. But the time has come to close out production. That is why we do not recommend that F-22s be included in the fiscal 2010 defense budget.Make no mistake. Air dominance remains an essential capability for joint warfighting. The F-22 is a vital tool in the military’s arsenal and will remain in our inventory for decades to come. But the time has come to move on.
Still, support for the F-22 remains strong in many quarters, and while it hasn’t fought its first “real” battle in the air, the F-22 is getting ready for its first and perhaps its final battle on Capitol Hill—and it is going to be a tough one.
As for Lockheed Martin, the Gates’ budget does include some favorable news for the Joint Strike Fighter (or F-35) program.
As Gates stated today at Maxwell-Gunter:
[The] budget increased funding from $6.8 to $11.2 billion for the fifth generation F-35, accelerating the development and testing regime to fix the remaining problems and begin rolling out these aircraft in quantity – more than 500 over the next five years, and more than 2,400 total for all the services.
More on the potential impact of the Gates’ budget on other programs of this venerable aerospace company, and supporting arguments for the F-22 in a future post.
Image: F-22 Raptors U.S. Air Force photo/Master Sgt. Kevin J. Gruenwald
