It is common that the party that holds the White House loses seats in the first midterm election. Many polls currently are forecasting Democrat losses. However, political history isn’t guaranteed to repeat itself. President Clinton and Obama suffered heavy midterm losses because they were both too extreme and too inexperienced. President Biden is highly experienced and centrist. President Biden does have a chance to be immune to this law of nature. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO is more united and relevant than it’s been in decades.

Bill Maher once stated, “We don’t have a conservative party and a liberal party, we have a center-right party and a crazy party.” One could argue whether Obama was center-right or not, but it’s much easier to argue that President Biden is in fact center-right. And the current opposition is in fact “the crazy party.”
For years, Speaker Gingrich was credited for leading the Republicans out of the woods in 1994 with his “Contract with America.” Currently there is no new “Contract.” The GOP seems to be employing the 2010 tactics of capitalizing on blind anger.

Instead of sitting around waiting for an impending defeat, wouldn’t it be interesting if the Democrats got proactive and unleashed their own “Contract with America” to persuade voters to let them keep control of Congress?

It was, after all, current Senate Majority Leader Schumer who led the Democrats to victory in the Senate in 2006. Schumer wrote about how he achieved this victory by catering to independent and middle-class voters in his book Positively American.

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has killed Biden’s Build Back Better plan, or at least put it on life support. More Democrats should rally behind it, or at least produce a more moderate version. The Democrats should campaign in 2022 on the premise that larger numbers in Congress are needed to get it accomplished. President Biden believes elements of the plan can be passed. The easy part is that the Democrats would not have to do much brainstorming to create their own “Contract With America.” They could simply break down the Build Back Better plan. One essential “element” of the Build Back Better plan is energy reform. Biden seems confident he can pass the energy component. Another potential item that could be on the Democrats’ “Contract with America” is legalization of marijuana. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has made legalizing marijuana a top priority. If they can accomplish this prior to the midterms, it would benefit the economy and therefore benefit the Democrats. However, if not, it would be an essential issue to campaign on. President Biden has vowed to re-invent the Affordable Care Act and rename it “Biden Care.” However, true reform would include permission to cross state lines to buy health insurance.

While it is common, the rule that the incumbent party always loses seats in the first midterm is not a law of nature. Since President Biden is planning to pursue this agenda anyway, he may as well organize this into a vision that all Democrats could unite and rally behind in the 2022 midterms.

The 2022 election is not about President Biden or the Democrats. It is not about the Republicans. It is not about any contract. If the Republicans win, it will be for the same reason why they won in 2010. As a very similar President once wisely stated “It’s the economy, stupid.” If Biden can accomplish any element of this agenda, the economy may turn around, and therefore so will the Democrat’s chance to maintain control of Congress.