It’s never too early for the Crystal Ball to look ahead to the next election. But unlike the Wizard of Oz’s phony orb (when he’s still the Kansas medicine man who peeks into Dorothy’s purse for photos of Auntie Em), we try to run an honest Ball. That means we have to tell you that the early outlook presented over the next couple of weeks will change often in the next two years, perhaps dramatically.
There are so many things we cannot know. How will Barack Obama perform as president? How popular or unpopular will he be in two years? Will the economy respond to his prescribed treatment or, as is often the case, will it follow its own cantankerous path? Will the withdrawal from Iraq go well or not? Will we make progress in Afghanistan? Will terrorists strike again at home or abroad? Will other international events in the Middle East and elsewhere sidetrack Obama’s reforms? Will major scandals affect the Obama administration or Congress? Our darn crystal ball is cloudy just yet. We may have to take it into the shop.
And then there’s the frustration of projecting congressional contests when we don’t even know the identities of all the candidates. Some additional incumbents will unexpectedly retire. Current challengers may drop out and new ones emerge. Party primaries may produce surprises that will massively affect the likely outcomes in some states and districts.
You really ought to skip these essays entirely. But for the junkies who persist and insist, we offer a few guideposts. Later Crystal Balls will discuss the 36 Governor’s contests, and others will examine the 435 House races in 2010. For now, we’ll focus on the Senate.