Our second Quote of the Day comes via New York Magazine’s Dan Amira who says that with the slew of negative polling coming in showing Republican Presidential nominee surging in some polls, pulling ahead of Barack Obama in others, and starting to reduce or obliterate Obama’s advantage with some key voting groups(such as women), Obama supporters should just take a deep breath and look at the bigger picture. After noting some comments by the always scientific Nate Silver, Amira writes:
While Obama clearly shit the bed last Wednesday night, none of this is totally unexpected, and the fundamentals of the race aren’t quite as dire as the bounce-driven polls.
Not to mention: There are still two presidential debates left. Just as quickly as the first one shifted the polls one way, the second two can shift the polls back another way. And does anyone expect Obama to be the same passive, unfocused empty chair that was the first time around?
So, take a deep breath, Obama supporters. Stop refreshing the Real Clear Politics polling page every twelve seconds. Get some perspective. Be patient. And step away from the edge.
This can be done. Just this morning I wrote my weekly syndicated Cagle column. It was not complimentary to Mr. Obama, his performance or his political team. And if you lay some of the latest polls coming out together it’s not hard to conclude what Andrew Sullivan did: Obama literally threw the election away.
Or did he? It’s possible, as Amira suggests, that Obama threw his and his party’s lead away.
But look how many abrupt shifts this campaign has had already. A LOT can happen in 3 weeks: unforeseen events, media revelations, a major gaffes, catastrophic debate Vice Presidential or Presidential performances — and many other factors.
It isn’t over.
But, yes, Obama threw his and his party’s lead away. And who has learned more from this? The Democrats or the Republicans?
Who is smart enough to anticipate and prepare — anticipate and prepare for the other side having anticipated and prepared?
Two weeks ago the Democrats were getting smug; now read old and new media coverage (particularly ideological blogs) and the Republicans are getting smug.
Fate and election results have a way of wiping the smugness off of partisans’ faces.
Which side will be the last one to be smug – and surprised on election day?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.