Russian President Vladimir Putin marked a geopolitical watershed today by officially recognizing the breakaway “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and deciding to deploy Russian “peacekeeper” troops to their territories.

This could be the turning point when the long peace between the US-led European allies and Russia is lost for decades.

But there is still a chance to build new bases for peace with Russia and separate it from China by reducing its economic dependence on Chinese money.

So far, a planned meeting between Secretary Antony Blinken and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov on February 24 is still on and hopes continue for a summit between President Joe Biden and Putin soon after that. But both prospects might sink in coming hours.

Applying the massive economic sanctions against Russia that Biden has promised will push Putin further into the dragon’s claws of China’s Xi Jinping, augmenting a rift extending from the heart of Europe to Far Eastern shores.

That cannot be good for anyone. Most of the world’s 145 other countries are unlikely to follow Biden in a long-term economic fight with Russia or China. Most may not side with Washington in a world divided by its clashes with Moscow and Beijing .

But there is still time to walk back from the edge.

The United Nations, which is often reticent on Great Power conflicts, was the first to react. A statement said, “The Secretary-General (Antonio Guterres) considers the decision of the Russian Federation to be a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and inconsistent with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”

In contrast, Putin sees the two breakaways as independent entities that are now free to officially invite his troops to protect them from invasion by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s army.

The issue is how far Biden will go. If he sees a violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, he will become morally bound to start applying the draconian sanctions he has promised.

Some tricky questions are raised. Are the frontiers of the breakaway provinces no longer Ukraine’s borders just because Putin said so? Does Putin have to roll a tank over some other part of Ukraine’s frontiers to trigger sanctions? Or will the entry of Russian “peacekeeper” troops be enough?

In his angry televised speech filled with resentment, Putin made a very clear threat. He demanded that Ukraine stop military activities against the breakaway areas or face the “full responsibility” of what comes next.

His redlines are engraved. He may massively invade Ukraine if Zelensky uses military action to prevent his breakaway proteges from existing.

A central problem is that the Russia-leaning provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk are much larger than the breakaway territories that Putin recognized today. They also contain the main large chunks of Ukraine’s mineral, food and industrial wealth.

So far, they are in Kyiv’s hands but Putin’s declaration is not clear on this point. Will his “peacekeepers” fight to acquire the full provinces and blame Zelensky for the war?

Russia is a minnow compared with the wealth concentrated in the US and its allies. But the destructive powers of his war machines are equivalent if not bigger than that of the US. He cannot be deterred by sanctions however awful.

Only a Biden decision to send American and NATO troops to fight Russia in Ukraine will stop him. That is out of the question.

Yet, it is unrealistic for Washington to expect that the Ukrainian people will fight and die by the million in a decades-long war ruinous for their country as proxies for the US and its allies.

It is also unrealistic to expect Ukraine’s neighbors to accept and house up to five million Slavic refugees.

So, there is no way other than reinforcing diplomacy for peace before the worsening situation slips into an out of control war. France and Germany are committed to this option.

Apparently, the only way to prevent a war now is for Zelensky to accept a comprise with Putin over the breakaway provinces. Otherwise, Ukrainians will end up devastated like Syrians where US and its Arab proxies have been fighting for over 10 years ostensibly to install democracy.

Significant European analysts have suggested earlier that Putin’s recognition of the breakaway provinces could be a satisfactory end because other Ukrainians prefer to separate from the mainly Russian speaking East.

Guterres has left the door open for compromise by calling for “the peaceful settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, in accordance with the Minsk Agreements, as endorsed by the Security Council in resolution 2202 (of 2015).”

In principle, Putin’s decision today voided the Minsk accords but he has also left this window open to install a long term settlement that avoids war or sanctions.

So, Blinken and Lavrov do have grist for their mill if they do not descend to more angry threats and declarations on how their “principles” take precedence over human lives, peace and prosperity.

If ever there were an unnecessary war, this is the one.