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Poll: Support for Health Care Reform and Obama Go Up in December 6 Percent

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A new CNN poll has found that support for heath care reform and President Barack Obama have both jumped 6 percent in December.

Why the increase for Obama? The poll shows that Obama is in particular winning over younger voters, although overall many voters feel he has not lived up to expectations. And for the Democrats: there are signs that the Democrats’ seemingly fracturing coalition is regrouping. Details:

Support for the health care reform bill that Democrats are pushing through the Senate has risen six points since early December, according to a new national poll, and although a majority of Americans still oppose its passage, only four in ten agree with Senate Republicans that the bill is too liberal.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, released Monday, also indicates that President Barack Obama’s approval rating has experienced a similar six-point rise.

According to the poll, 42 percent of Americans, based on what they’ve read or heard about the bill, support Senate Democrat’s legislation. That’s up from 36 percent in a poll conducted December 2-3. Nonetheless, a majority of people questioned in the survey, 56 percent, oppose the bill.

The poll was taken before the vote early Monday morning to end a GOP filibuster and move the bill forward.

“Virtually all the increase in support for the Senate health care bill has come from Democrats, with a 10-point increase since early December,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Support is also up 10 points among younger Americans, compared to only two points among people 50 and older.”

Which means: the Democrats are keeping the inroads they made among younger voters and those who voted for Obama, while the GOP message has shored up its base but not gone much beyond that. This suggests both parties are in a kind of holding pattern right now — which won’t be good news for the GOP if this is the outlook in late October.

The survey also indicates the public’s divided on whether the Senate bill will help most Americans, with 38 percent saying if the bill becomes law things will change for the worse, 34 percent feeling that the bill will change things for the better and 26 percent saying things will not change.

But less than 1 in 4 think the bill will make their own health care coverage better, 15 points lower than the 37 percent who say their health care will get worse if the bill becomes law. Nearly 4 in 10 say there will be no change in their or their immediate family’s coverage.

According the to poll, 54 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama’s doing as president, up 6 points from early December, with 44 percent disapproving, down 6 points.

“Obama’s approval rating is up ten points among younger Americans, but only two points among older Americans,” Holland says. “Since the same pattern occurs in the figures for the Senate health care bill, it’s possible that the two are related. Obama’s support is also up mostly among liberals, to 81 percent.”

So, more than ever, Obama is going to have to try and keep his base but not suffer greater erosion among independent voters and moderates — quite a juggling act, given than some Democratic progressives consider any concessions to moderates tantamount to giving in Republicans, even when moderates aren’t Republicans.

Meanwhile, Obama’s numbers don’t look as good at Gallup, where the latest daily tracking poll has him at 49 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval.

Nor does his Pollster.com poll composite graph look particularly joy-inducing:



This is close to the RealClearPolitics poll composite graph, although that one shows an upward trend:

A few thoughts:

  • The key question will be what happens next. Democrats will frame any passage of the Senate bill by Christmas eve as a historic occasion — which it will be. Republicans will agree on that as well, but will portray it as a historic partisan screw up and overreach. Which argument will that portion of the American electorate that doesn’t feel it has a vested interest in whichever party is dominant embrace?

  • The GOP may have a tougher time rallying the country against the emerging plan than it did during the summer with the Tea Party protests. The reason: the initial meetings, talk show verbal pothots, etc. dealt with an unknown quantity and was to try and stop the plan in its tracks. Now it isn’t stopped and it’s not as much an unknown since specific aspects of the plan are now being debated in the new and old media.

  • The key question now is whether Democrats and Obama’s numbers will go up as details of the actual emerging plan come to light. Poll numbers and clout generate more poll numbers and clout.

  • The biggest question is whether this partial healing of a fractured Democratic coalition is just a bump that will vanish and whether a week or two from now the Democrats resume shooting at their more typical targets — each other and their own feet.