More bad news for the Hillary Clinton campaign. Don’t even use the phrase “Big Mo,” because this “Mo” is more like Moe of the Three Stooges: a new YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker poll is poking her in the eye, giving Sen. Bernie Sanders a wide lead in New Hampshire and erasing her lead in Iowa.
Hillary Clinton’s deficit among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire has grown to more than 20 points, while her lead over Bernie Sanders among likely caucus voters in Iowa has been reversed, according to the first wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker. Clinton remains ahead in South Carolina, where Joe Biden also makes a strong showing.
IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
The new poll finds Sen. Sanders with 52% support among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, while former Secretary of State Clinton, long considered the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic nomination, receives 30%. Recent polls have shown Sanders’ lead growing in the Granite State, but this would be the first to show the Vermont Senator over 50%.
And more bad news for the Clinton camp:
Possibly more worrying for the Clinton campaign is her performance in Iowa, where Sanders now leads by 10 points, with 43% to Clinton’s 33%.
Until recently Clinton had retained an edge in Iowa, the other first-in-the-nation voting state along with New Hampshire. A recent CNN/ORC poll found the pair tied among likely Iowa caucus voters.
But good news from South Carolina:
SOUTH CAROLINA
Vice President Joe Biden, who is rumored to be considering a run for the White House in 2016, receives only 10% support from Democrats in Iowa and 9% in New Hampshire placing him third in both states. Biden’s best performance is in South Carolina, where he has the backing of 22% of Democratic primary voters, matching Sanders’ 23%. Yet Clinton remains firmly in the lead there with 46% support.
While Democrats Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white, South Carolina is the first early state with a significant minority population – over half of likely Democratic primary voters in the Palmetto State are African-American, a group with whom Clinton retains strong support. Indeed Sanders has a narrow lead over Clinton among white North Carolina Democrats (46%-39%), but trails Clinton by 48 points among blacks.
Another demographic with whom Clinton has received disproportionate support is with women, and that mostly remains the case here. Clinton’s support is 7 points higher among Iowa women than men. The gender gap is larger in New Hampshire (12 points) and insignificant in South Carolina (4 points). By contrast, Bernie Sanders performs particularly well with Democratic men – though Clinton trails by only 11 points among women in New Hampshire she trails by a mammoth 38 points among men.
On the GOP side, the poll finds results similar to other recent ones:
On the GOP side, Donald Trump continues to soar. But according to the poll, the outspoken billionaire is now joined in the top tier by another candidate from beyond the Beltway – former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
In Iowa, a quarter of likely Republican caucus voters tap Ben Carson as their top choice for the GOP nomination, putting him only 4 points behind Donald Trump. Accounting for respondents’ second choice preferences, Carsion actually leads Trump narrowly.
Carson also comes in a strong second in South Carolina, where 21% of likely Republican primary voters back him and 36% back Trump. Sen. Ted Cruz is a distant third with 6%.
Donald Trump’s biggest lead?
Trump’s most substantial lead is in New Hampshire, where he has the support of 40% of likely Republican primary voters. Carson comes in second again, but by a much greater distance, with only 12% support and a smattering of other candidates close behind him, including John Kasich at 9% and Carly Fiorina at 8%. Jeb Bush, who led most polls in New Hampshire throughout the early summer, is tied for fifth with Rand Paul, at 6%.
Look for the Trump-Carson sparring to continue — and intensify.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.