Bilionaire Donald Trump may be repeatedly unfire fire for comments he makes demeaning women, but it hasn’t impacted his poll numbers. In fact, a new CNN/ORC Poll, finds him businessman him growing his support — at 32% with major gains among women:
Donald Trump has become the first Republican presidential candidate to top 30% support in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, which finds the businessman pulling well away from the rest of the GOP field.
Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, and has nearly tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in June. The new poll finds former neurosurgeon Ben Carson rising 10 points to land in second place with 19%. Together, these two non-politicians now hold the support of a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and separately, both are significantly ahead of all other competitors.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush stands in third place with 9%, down 4 points since August, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds fourth place with 7%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker follow at 5%, with all other candidates at 3% or less, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who notched the only other statistically significant shift in the poll by falling 5 points since August.
The other candidates now have a choice: to do they take Trump on (and risk losing those who like him and will stick with him no matter what), pretend like he isn’t ahead and try to get attention by over-the-top comments or policies, or focus on carving out their own personality and hope that in debates they are seen as the anti-Trump and get the financial resources from the GOP establishment and not-Trump-fan billionaires?
Trumps big gain?
Trump’s gains come most notably among two groups that had proven challenging for him in the early stages of his campaign — women and those with college degrees. While he gained just 4 points among men in the last month (from 27% in August to 31% now), he’s up 13 points among women, rising from 20% in August to 33% now. Trump has also boosted his share of the vote among college graduates, increasing his support among those with degrees from 16% in August to 28% now. Among those without degrees, he stands at 33%, just slightly higher than the 28% support he had in August.
Trump has also catapulted ahead of the rest of the field among Republicans who back the tea party movement, from 27% support in August to 41% now. Among that group in the new poll, Carson follows with 21%, and Cruz, another candidate with an anti-Washington message, holds third with 11%. No other candidate tops 5% among tea partiers.
Meanwhile, the anti-Trump candidate and rising star at this moment is Dr. Ben Carson:
Carson’s gains, meanwhile, have come chiefly among core partisans — he’s up 13 points among Republicans and 11 points among conservatives — and he runs closest to Trump among white evangelicals (32% back Trump, 28% Carson), a key voting bloc within the Republican primary electorate.Carson also has enthusiasm at his side. Republicans are more than twice as likely to say they would be enthusiastic with Carson at the top of the ticket than if Rubio, Cruz, Walker or Bush led the GOP into 2016, and while he and Trump are about even in enthusiasm (43% would be enthusiastic if Carson got the nod, 40% if Trump did), fewer say they would be disappointed if Carson emerged the victor (20% would be dissatisfied or upset if Carson won, 32% if Trump did).
And who do GOPers think will be their candidate in the end? Guess who:
Still, most Republican voters (51%) think Trump is most likely to emerge as the GOP winner, well ahead of the 19% who think Bush will top the party ticket and 11% who think Carson will. In a July poll, 14% of Republican voters said they thought Walker was most likely to wind up the winner, in the new poll, that figure stands at just 1%.
Walker will be pointed to in coming years as an example of a candidate Not Ready for Prime Time. Even the Koch Brothers are likely using this when he walks into a room.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.