Those of us who were once Republicans continue to scratch our heads wondering what has happened to a once proud party that use to stand by and defend seemingly timeless principles, given the latest proclamation from Republican Minority leader Sen. Mitch McConnell: he says the GOP could well decide to filibuster Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor…and who cares if Republicans once decried filibusters on judicial nominees because the Democrats advocated it so now the GOP will, too.
It makes us scratch our heads for several reasons.
First, a filibuster is likely to fail. Secondly, is the GOP leadership trying to proactively chase away Latino voters? Thirdly, Sotomayor enjoys huge support in the polls and received some kind words from several prominent Republicans. And, finally, after screaming when his party controlled the Senate about how filibusters against judicial nominees were sleazy politics, McConnell is giving yet one more example of how the Republican party in recent years has been willing to jettison principles and talking points once passionately echoed by its partisans.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned on Sunday hat a GOP filibuster of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor is possible but added that it was “way too early to tell” if Republicans will go that route.
McConnell and other Republicans have objected to the Democrats’ plan to confirm Sotomayor before the August congressional recess, claiming that they need far more time to review her record. The White House and Democratic leaders counter that they are giving the minority the same amount of time as previous high court nominees.
During an interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” McConnell said the filibuster option remained on the table but would not say it would be employed.
“It’s way too early to be talking about whether anybody opposes this nominee,” McConnell said. “The Democrats have firmly established that as precedent, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to use it.”
The Kentucky Republican also noted that he opposed Democratic filibusters of judicial nominees during the Bush years. But since the Democrats did it to those GOP nominees, the procedure was in bounds for Republicans now.
Hey, Mitch, remember what your mother once said? “If your friend jumps off a cliff does that mean you should jump off a cliff, too?”
Note that a filibuster cannot just be called on the basis of some arcane or minor legal point. To advocate it, Senate GOPers will have to try to justify it by painting Sotomayor as incompetent, a danger to the Republic, or tear a page (which has happened once or twice before..) out of Rush Limbaugh’s book and label her a “racist.” All of these tactics would basically mean demonizing her.
But the man who originally appointed her to the bench has made it clear he wants the GOP to back away from demonization polemics and judge her on her merits:
Former President George H.W. Bush defended Judge Sonia Sotomayor on Friday, saying it is “not right” to call President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee a “racist.”
“She was called by somebody a racist once. That’s not right. I mean, that’s not fair,” Bush said in an interview with CNN. “It doesn’t help the process. You’re out there name-calling. So let them decide who they want to vote for and get on with it.”
“I don’t know her that well, but I think she’s had a distinguished record on the bench and she should be entitled to fair hearings,” he said.
He must be a RINO…
If she gets a “fair hearing,” it’s unlikely it would move to the level where GOPers — even with Limbaugh cheering them on or demanding it of them — could call a filibuster. They’d have to lay the rhetorical groundwork first — ground work that would likely be highly polarizing.
The bottom line is that Sotomayor’s nomination has been a source of pride to Latinos, one of America’s fastest growing political groups. For instance, listen to former Bush administration Attorney General Alberto Gonzales:
Gonzales: I think it’s a proud day for the Sotomayor family. It’s a historic day for the Hispanic community. I don’t think that any gender group or ethnic group is entitled to representation on our courts. I don’t think that the outcome of a case should depend upon the ethnicity or gender of the judge, any more than the outcome of a case should depend on the ethnicity or gender of a prosecutor or defendant.
But having said that, Wolf, this is a powerful message, a powerful message of hope and opportunity of hope through this appointment, just like there’s a powerful message sent when an African-American is elected president or an African-American or Hispanic is appointed as attorney general of the United States. It’s a powerful message that a president listens to, and this president obviously did.
He must be a RINO…
Or former first lady Laura Bush, on June 8th, well after Limbaugh & Associates labeled Sotomayor a racist:
Former First Lady Laura Bush called Sonia Sotomayor, President Obama’s Supreme Court pick, a “very interesting and good nominee” in a TV interview that aired Monday.
“As a woman I’m proud that there might be another woman on the court,” Bush told ABC’s “Good Morning America. “So we’ll see what happens, but I wish her well.”
She must be a RINO.
Actually, if the GOP does filibuster it would mean McConnell and those joining him would be dodos –given a host of polls. To wit:
Republicans may have a window of opportunity to turn public opinion against President Barack Obama’s first Supreme Court nominee, but a new poll finds that such a campaign could hurt their party’s already weak standing with Americans, especially Hispanics, the nation’s fastest-growing voter group.
Fully 55 percent of Americans said they hadn’t yet heard enough about Sonia Sotomayor to have an opinion of her, according to a new McClatchy-Ipsos poll. That could be the opportunity Republicans can exploit by attacking her. Even so, 54 percent said the Senate should confirm her, while only 21 percent said it should not, and one in four Americans isn’t yet sure.
However, the poll revealed a danger for Republicans: 37 percent of the general population and 42 percent of Hispanics said they’d feel less favorably toward the Republican Party if Senate Republicans “overwhelmingly oppose” Sotomayor, 54, a Latina federal appellate judge from New York.
A much smaller number – 24 percent of the general population and 20 percent of Hispanics – said that organized GOP opposition would endear Republicans to them.
A FOX News poll released Friday finds 46 percent of voters nationwide say they would confirm Sotomayor and 32 percent would oppose her confirmation. About one in five — 22 percent — are unsure.
Obama nominated Sotomayor to take the seat of retiring Justice David Souter. Senate confirmation hearings are set to begin July 13.
The results on Sotomayor’s nomination are almost identical to results from polling conducted soon after President Bush nominated Samuel Alito to serve on the high court. At that time, 46 percent said they would vote to confirm Alito, while 29 percent said no and 25 percent were unsure.
A new national opinion poll by the independent Quinnipiac University indicates that a majority of Americans approve of President Barack Obama’s nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court. The poll finds that voters’ attitudes about Sotomayor match their feelings about President Obama.
Peter Brown is the Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He said since Judge Sotomayor was nominated for the high court more than a week ago, her support among American voters has remained strong, despite criticism by some Republicans.
“Judge Sotomayor is weathering the storm quite nicely,” said Peter Brown. “The Quinnipiac Poll shows a 55 percent approval rating.”
The poll shows that only 25 percent of those surveyed disapprove of Sotomayor’s nomination, which must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. The survey of more than 3,000 American voters was released Thursday.
The Quinnipiac Poll also asked whether Mr. Obama’s nomination was influenced by Sotomayor’s ethnicity and whether that should be a deciding factor over legal qualifications. The poll found that Americans seem to believe that nationality played a rather important role in Mr. Obama’s decision, with 34 percent deeming it as “very important” and 36 percent calling it “somewhat important.”
As for agreeing with such influences, 60 percent of participants think that legal qualifications should be considered above diversity when deciding on a Supreme Court justice. Eight percent said diversity was more important, and 29 percent said both were equally important.
As for her views, Quinnipiac assistant director Peter Brown said voters are split, according to the release.
“Voters are split about whether senators debating Sotomayor’s confirmation should consider her views on issues. A plurality, 42 percent, thinks her views are about right while 30 percent think she’s more liberal than they would like and 5 percent think she’s not liberal enough,” he said.
Before Mr. Obama announced his pick, a CBS News poll on May 13 asked Americans whether they would approve of Mr. Obama’s pick for a Supreme Court Justice, and the results were similar to the results of the Quinnipiac poll taken afterwards. Fifty-five percent of Americans in the poll said they were confident in his appointment; however, they still revealed large differences along party lines. While over 80 percent of Democrats felt confident in Obama’s choice, 60 percent of Republicans felt uneasy about the same decision.
On the other hand, attacks in themselves might not do politically mortal damage to the GOP:
Respected pollsters like Quinnipiac, Gallup, Associated Press and USA Today amongst others have Judge Sotomayor’s approvals pegged in the mid to upper-50 percentiles. But it’s a deeper look into the Quinnipiac numbers in particular that could spell some measure of relief for the Republican Party. According to a recent poll Sotomayor’s overall approval of 55% is, surely to the surprise of many, just three percentage points lower than her support within the Hispanic community.
The poll finds that sub-groupings such as African-Americans (85%) and women overall (60%) rate the judge higher than her own ethnic community. Data such as this hints at the possibility that the GOP may not be risking as much with a full out attack on President Obama’s nominee as previously believed.
However, note that this analysis says this is a “possibility.” Will top GOPers be willing to take that risk to throw more “red meat’ to the party’s base? (Granted, that might be like asking: “Would Rush Limbaugh pass up a banana split?”)
Of course a swift confirmation process is a political victory for any President, but placing Sotomayor on the bench may not have the sort of positive residual effects many Democrats may have been searching for. One particularly interesting poll question by Quinnipiac to its nearly 3,100 responders asked whether it be important for the body of the Supreme Court to “better reflect” that of the country as a whole. This question was in terms of race, ethnicity, gender and religion as compared to a judge’s legal qualifications. Only 8% found it to be a more important aspect to the makeup of the bench against 57% who found it less important than individual merit. Nearly a one to seven ratio.
Note again the use of the word “may.” So the GOP might not suffer greatly if it goes after Sotomayor. On the other hand, most analyists believe it could suffer.
Just look at this in the political context — a context detailed by Republican consultant Mike Murphy in Time magazine. Here’s a chunk of it:
Despairing Republican friends have been asking me what I think we should do to rebuild the GOP and begin our certain and inevitable comeback. My answer disappoints them: “Build an ark.”
I say this because I’ve made a career out of counting votes, and the numbers tell a clear story; the demographics of America are changing in a way that is deadly for the Republican Party as it exists today. A GOP ice age is on the way.
Demographic change is irritating to politicos, since it works on elections much as rigged dice do on a Las Vegas craps table: it is a game changer. For years, Republicans won elections because the country was chock-full of white middle-class voters who mostly pulled the GOP lever on Election Day. Today, however, that formula is no longer enough. (See pictures of Republican memorabilia.)
It was a huge shock to the GOP when Barack Obama won Republican Indiana last year. The bigger news was how he did it. Latino voters delivered the state. Exit polls showed that they provided Obama with a margin of more than 58,000 votes in a state he carried by a slim 26,000 votes. That’s right, GOP, you’ve entered a brave new world ruled by Latino Hoosiers, and you’re losing.
In 1980, Latino voters cast about 2% of all votes. Last year it was 9%, and Obama won that Hispanic vote with a crushing 35-point margin. By 2030, the Latino share of the vote is likely to double. In Texas, the crucial buckle for the GOP’s Electoral College belt, the No. 1 name for new male babies — many of whom will vote one day — is Jose. Young voters are another huge GOP problem. Obama won voters under 30 by a record 33 points. And the young voters of today, while certainly capable of changing their minds, do become all voters tomorrow.
The GOP’s problem in the Sotomayor nomination involves a matter of choice: there are degrees of opposition. Mounting a serious, vigorous, energetic and even aggressive attack on her stands on issues would be one thing.
A filibuster is another — particularly when people like George HW Bush, Alberto Gonzales, and Laura Bush have eschewed the demonization card. If Senate Republicans opt for a filibuster they could be eschewing future votes from many Hispanic and other voters.
Should Republicans start building an arc now?
If they do, they should make sure there’s room on it for displaced dodo birds.
UPDATE: Here’s a definite dodo…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.