It’s pretty clear from press coverage, his poor performance on Fox, and sliding national and Iowa poll numbers that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is no longer the front runner for the 2012 Republican nomination. Romney has been supplanted by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. But the one bright spot for Romney — his political firewall — has been New Hampshire, where he has invested a ton of time and money.
But a new poll shows his lead is shrinking there — which indicates there’s now an emerging trend for the Romney candidate and it isn’t a good one. In fact, with this poll it’s time to say it: the old conventional wisdom is close to dead now. Romney may NOT be the “inevitable” 2012 Republican nominee and at this point it looks as if it will be Gingrich (until a new candidate surges and the emerging new conventional wisdom is tossed out).
Romney just finished a dreadful political week and this shows he’s off to a lousy start in the new week as well:
Although Mitt Romney outpaces his closest competitor in New Hampshire’s Republican Presidential Primary by 16 percentage points, his lead has been cut in half since a similar poll conducted in October.
Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate in New Hampshire:
39% for Mitt Romney
23% for Newt Gingrich
16% for Ron Paul
9% for Jon Huntsman
3% for Michele Bachmann
3% for Rick Perry
2% for Herman Cain
1% for Rick Santorum
4% are undecided“Romney is down, Cain has collapsed, and the undecided have dropped since October,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “In the meantime, Gingrich has emerged as a serious threat to Romney’s must-win, first-in-the-nation primary.”
When NBC News/Marist last reported this question, 45% of likely Republican primary voters including leaners supported Romney while Cain and Paul each received 13% of the vote. Seven percent, at the time, were behind Perry while 5% rallied for Huntsman. Gingrich placed sixth in October with 4% while 3% favored Bachmann. One percent supported Santorum. Eight percent, at that time, were undecided.
Little changes if Cain drops out of the race given he currently receives support from only 2% of New Hampshire voters likely to vote in the Republican primary. Based upon the second choice of his supporters, the contest among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate is now 39% for Romney, 24% for Gingrich, and 16% for Paul. Nine percent back Huntsman while Bachmann and Perry each receive 3%. Two percent support Santorum, and 4% remain undecided.
Among the potential Republican electorate in New Hampshire, that is, all Republicans and those independents who plan to vote in the primary, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Romney has a 19 percentage point lead. 40% back Romney while Gingrich takes the second spot with 21% followed by Paul with 16% and Huntsman with 10%. Three percent favor Bachmann, and the same proportion — 3% — rallies for Perry. Two percent back Cain, and 1% supports Santorum. Four percent are undecided.
I’ve often said: one poll does not a trend make.
Mitt Romney now can see a trend. And it isn’t a good one for him.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.