Algerians and Yemenis are in the streets risking their lives against dictatorships more brutal and venal than that of the deposed Hosni Mubarak but their faith in the Egyptian people’s triumph is premature. Although the repressive constitution and rubber-stamp parliament have been suspended, the bare fact is that the state has slipped into full military rule. Egyptians are far from free yet.

Meanwhile Israel is exposed to extraordinary threat, particularly if the Gaza border is not as tightly sealed against weapons smuggling as in the past. Without putting itself at existential risk, Israel cannot reasonably avoid the nightmare scenario of recapturing all of Sinai to keep weapons out of Gaza. Free Egyptians in a democracy may prefer to build their own country rather than face another war for the sake of Palestinians. But the generals may yet decide to continue lining their own pockets rather than doing what is best for the people.

There are no signs that the elite military and business families are ready to remove themselves from wealth and power. Least of all in favour of a democracy run by people they disdain as inferiors. Nor is there evidence that the current caretaker administration is capable of breaking so many entrenched vested interests while putting itself out of business.

The hard domestic facts have also become tougher. Lack of jobs and opportunities for young educated persons were the revolt’s triggers. There is no magic wand to reverse those. Only a dynamic economy and better education can deliver a growing cake big enough for everyone to eat regularly. These things do not happen just by protesting against their absence.

Egypt has much to gain from an orderly and peaceful transition away from military rule towards a democracy that guarantees human rights and freedom of expression. Among the many fundamental changes required is a new constitution rather than a patched up previous one. Egypt can look forward to a happy future after free and fair elections because it will be recognized and admired as the legitimate leader of the Arab world. It will also get strong economic and political backing from both the US and European Union, especially if the cool peace with Israel is maintained without much erosion.

But there are many pitfalls. Often when generals take over, they prolong military rule after protestors return home in the hope of better times. Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat and Mubarak pledged democracy when they took power. Instead, they established and strengthened institutions hostile to people’s freedoms. To serve their own interests, they built police and justice systems to impose repression with impunity.

But Mubarak’s removal was a miracle and more can happen. However, they are unlikely without sustained and sharp pressure from the US and Europe. Even so, in a one-man one-vote democracy, there will also be little to stop the Muslim Brotherhood’s rise. They are already popular among the rural and urban poor despite being banned for decades. They could win majority in the next elections, if left to operate freely for 5 or more years. Their conversion to liberal democracy would indeed be a miracle, both spiritual and temporal.