Iraq’s provincial elections represent a double whammy victory: for Iraq’s experiment in democracy and for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s party.
For Iraq’s democracy: putting aside any debate over whether the United States was correct to go into Iraq, the elections showed that the system could work — despite the many warts that appeared in this election. For Maliki’s party: it was a big day for those who believe in a more secular Iraq.
In an interview with NBC, President Barack Obama called the elections “an important step forward.” But there was one caveat in this equation: turnout was low:
Voter turnout in Iraq’s provincial elections Saturday was the lowest in the nation’s short history as a new democracy despite a relative calm across the nation. Only about 7.5 million of more than 14 million registered voters went to the polls.
Interviews suggest that the low voter turnout also is an indication of Iraqi disenchantment with a democracy that, so far, has brought them very little.
Since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 and the fall of a brutal dictator, Iraqis witnessed unprecedented violence in their nation and what they believe is humiliation under a foreign occupation. Even on Saturday, U.S. tanks could be spotted across Baghdad on largely empty roads.
This McClatchy report notes that many Iraqis blame the United States for sectarian violence that has left some residents literally hiding in their homes. The turnout? Roughly 51 percent — significantly less than the 76 percent turnout who voted in the December 2005 national elections. And less than the 57 percent who voted in the January 2005 provincial councils and the national assembly election.
Still, it was repeatedly a peaceful vote, admittedly marked by heavy security – -and some confusion. But, as Andrew Sullivan writes:
It’s very hard not to be cheered by the provincial elections over the weekend. Yes, the Sunni vote still seems somewhat depressed, and this could lead to trouble down the line, especially in Anbar; yes, the entire country was in virtual lockdown just to secure a basic turnout; yes, the voter rolls are still apparently more than a little random; and we’ve learned by now to interpret events in Iraq without succumbing to total pessimism or triumphalism.
But the mere fact of the elections – that they occurred peacefully in an Arab Muslim country and that they suggest a real mechanism for the expression of popular political will: this is an achievement of which Iraq and the US military can be proud, and which, frankly, I did not dare expect. The news that the Awakening parties did very well in Anbar is very encouraging in the eternal fight against al Qaeda. I’m still trying to figure out the details, but here’s some early expert reaction from across the political spectrum.
According to UPI, citing the New York Times, if these results hold Malki will see the position of his own party strengthened as it deals with Iraqi lawmakers leading up to next year’s national election. Clout is clout in any democracy. The biggest loser: Iraq’s biggest Shiite party, the AP reports:
The biggest Shiite party in Iraq once appeared to hold all the political sway: control of the heartland, the backing of influential clerics and a foot in the government with ambitions to take full control.
But the days of wide-open horizons could be soon ending for the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, and replaced by important shifts that could be welcomed in Washington and scorned in Tehran.
The signs began to take shape Sunday with hints of the voter mood from provincial elections.
The broad message — built on Iraqi media projections and postelection interviews — was that the eventual results would punish religious-leaning factions such as the Supreme Council that are blamed for stoking sectarian violence, and reward secular parties seen capable of holding Iraq’s relative calm.
The outcome of the provincial races will not directly effect Iraq’s national policies or its balance between Washington’s global power and Iran’s regional muscle. But Shiite political trends are critically important in Iraq, where majority Shiites now hold sway after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated regime.
“There is a backlash from Iraqis against sectarian and religious politics,” said Mustafa al-Ani, an Iraqi political analyst based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Part of all this is symbolic. The elections went off without a major hitch. There are no people pouring into the streets calling the elections rigged. It’s just one election that now causes a reconfiguration of the power balance within the fragile democracy…leading to the next one. Which is a plus..
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.