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Posted by on Oct 31, 2010 in At TMV | 0 comments

How Many Senate Seats Might The Tea Party Save For Dems ?

That was one of the the topics on Hardball today, just how many Senate seats would probably have gone to the GOP with a more moderate or mainstream nominee ?

The most obvious pick is Delaware, a state that was 99% certain to go Republican with Mike Castle but is now equally certain to stick with the Democrats in their battle against “Not A Witch”.

I can think of four other seats that are at least in play because of the Tea Party Nominee

Nevada: Reid would be toast against any rational Republican nominee.

Alaska: Murkowski would be a lock for re-election (indeed she still may win) but with Miller on the ballot the Democrats have at least a shot to win.

Colorado: A red trending state (at least this year) with a bad incumbent in Bennett, but the GOP nominee Buck seems to be doing all he can to be the craziest Tea Partier.

Kentucky: Paul will probably win but I would not be shocked if all the insanity around him gave Conway a shot.

So that is 1-5 seats that could be in Democratic instead of GOP hands.

Now I’m sure Tea Party supporters will argue that at least the 4 close races could still go GOP and they are right, but I’m also right (or so I think) that with a more moderate pick all 4 races would not be close.

And can anyone name a single Senate race that the GOP would have lost (or will lose) with a mainstream nominee that they would win with a Tea Partier ?