The latest Gallup poll underscores again why this race remains a dead heat: Barack Obama way ahead on likability, and Romney ahead on who can best handle the economy and the deficit. The question becomes: who is in a better condition to close that gap? Ostensibly, it’d be eaiser to close a likability gap than a gap on having what it takes to fix an ailing economy. The poll:
As the two-week period of back-to-back presidential nominating conventions gets underway next Monday, an Aug. 20-22 USA Today/Gallup poll underscores the strengths and weaknesses of each of the two candidates at this point in the campaign. Barack Obama retains a significant edge over Mitt Romney on personal dimensions, particularly in terms of his “likability,” while Americans still believe Romney is better able to handle the economy.
Americans are more likely to say that each of seven personal characteristics or qualities applies to Obama than to Romney, by margins stretching from one percentage point for “can manage the government effectively” to 23 points for being “likable.”
Obama has double-digit leads on four of the dimensions, including likability, cares about the needs of people like you, honesty, and “would stand up to special interests.” Obama’s lead is smaller in terms of being perceived as a strong and decisive leader, working well with both parties, and the aforementioned dimension of being able to manage the government effectively.
Gallup has measured the “likability” gap between Obama and Romney three times since May, and Obama’s edge has narrowed during that time.
Gallup offers some more details and the gives the bottom line:
Overall, these data provide an illuminating insight into the structure of the presidential contest. President Obama’s greatest vulnerability appears to be the economy — not surprising, given that unemployment is still above 8% and given the low level of Americans’ confidence in the economy. At the same time, Obama has great strengths in Americans’ positive views of his personal image and characteristics, and of his position on several non-economic issues.
At this point, it appears that the two candidates’ contrasting strengths have essentially canceled themselves out, given that Obama and Romney are exactly tied in Gallup Daily tracking. However, both candidates will have the opportunity to address their weaknesses and bolster their strengths in the forthcoming conventions.
Which again gets back to it being a dead heat.
One factor analysts say to watch: in which direction is the economy heading in recent months? Going down slightly, a lot (trouble for Obama). Improving slightly, or a lot (trouble for Romney)? But it would seem easier to control and fix a likability problem (hinges on imagery, verbal and body language) than the economy (depends on external economic forces, American business and Congress).
Partisans who suggest their side has basically won and is ready to win are deluding themselves — at least according to the data.
Here’s the latest Pollster poll aggregation chart (this is the chart they have with all major polls):
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.