Make no mistake about it: there is now a new front runner for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination and his name is Newt Gingrich. The former House Speaker is zooming in the polls while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the former presumptive Republican nominee, remains stuck in the 20s. Just look at the latest Gallup Poll:
Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney 37% to 22% in Gallup’s inaugural Daily tracking of Republican registered voters’ preferences for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, with all other candidates in the single digits.
And it’s clear when you read the Gallup report on the poll what has happened: Gingrich has gained the bulk of former Cain supporters and has started the process of consolidating the Anti-Romney vote behind a single person — him. This means two things a)Romney will have to begin to step up his battle against Gingrich and try to differentiate himself from him and, b) the other candidates who aspire to be the prime option against Romney will need to try to cut Gingrich down to size.
Gallup Daily tracking of the race for the GOP nomination began Dec. 1, and will be reported each day at 1 p.m. Eastern on the basis of a five-day rolling average of at least 1,000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. The current results are based on 1,277 Republican registered voters nationwide interviewed Dec. 1-5.
This initial Daily report confirms that the Republican race has shifted once again, with former Speaker of the House Gingrich this time rising to the top of the GOP list. This is the latest in a series of front-runner changes that have marked the Republican nomination battle as one of the more volatile in the recent history of presidential politics. At various points since the field largely took its current shape in August when Rick Perry entered the race, Gallup polls have shown Perry, Cain, Romney, and now Gingrich as the leader or tied for the lead for the Republican nomination. Earlier this year and late last year, Gallup polls showed Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Sarah Palin — all of whom eventually declined to run — leading or tied for the lead.
When Gallup last measured Republican registered voters’ preferences Nov. 13-17, 22% supported Gingrich, 21% supported Romney, and 16% backed Cain.
Cain was included in the first three days of interviewing, Dec. 1-3, but his name was removed on Dec. 4 after he announced the suspension of his campaign. Cain’s supporters from the first three days of interviewing have been re-allocated to their second-choice candidate. Cain was getting about 7% support prior to being removed from the survey.
Look for those inside of the GOP and outside the GOP who wish to see Gingrich’s rise halted step up attacks and for there to be increased media scrutiny of his already-heavily-vetted past life and any new assertions he makes. Front runners are always targets for competitors within their own parties and their status means they are automatically of interest to the news media, which wants to see if there is anything hidden behind the public image.
If Gingrich’s trend continues, the new narrative will be the inevitabilty of his nomination.
Photo via Christopher Halloran / Shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.