We’ve noted here many times the fact that new and old media pundits can analyze and predict all the want but in the end much of the analysis is wrong analysis sheepishly swept under the rug due to intevereening events. An event can transform a Presidential image…for good or bad. It can change a conventional wisdom narrative, strengthen or weaken the President’s party and conversely strengthen or weaken the opposition party. The jury is still out on Barack Obama and the Gulf Coast oil spill — but according to The Politico, the White House is in p.r. panic mode:

The ferocious oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico is threatening President Barack Obama’s reputation for competence, just as surely as it endangers the Gulf ecosystem.

So White House aides are escalating their efforts to reassure Congress and the public in the face of a slow-motion catastrophe, even though it’s not clear they can bring it under control anytime soon.

“There is no good answer to this,” one senior administration official said. “There is no readily apparent solution besides one that could take three months. … If it doesn’t show the impotence of the government, it shows the limits of the government.”

Hope and change was Obama’s headline message in 2008, but those atop his campaign have always said that it was Obama’s cool competence — exemplified by his level-headed handling of the financial meltdown during the campaign’s waning days — that sealed the deal with independents and skeptical Democrats. The promise of rational, responsive and efficient government is Obama’s brand, his justification for bigger and bolder federal interventions and, ultimately, his rationale for a second term.

So there was a “little bit of panic,” according to one administration official, when White House aides sensed the oil spill narrative getting away from them last week. The White House was particularly alarmed by the rash of stories comparing the Obama administration’s initial response with President George W. Bush’s sluggish response in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Some things about this:

1. The oil spill would have been called “Obama’s Katrina” by his partisan opponents even if Obama had waved a magic wand and all of the oil instantly disappeared. Conservative talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh have big bucks invested (and big buck payoffs) in needing to take a breaking story and turn it into something that generates partisan rage or resentments, so they can saw off a demographic that is solidly delivered to advertisers. This is precisely what happened in the case of Limbaugh (who probably to gain atttention suggested that perhaps the oil spill was somehow an inside job…probably by the same folks who have helped Obama fake his being born in the United States…or the same folks who were involved in the death of Vince Foster). Sean Hannity as expected did rip-n-read partisanship. Obama’s problem would be if the mainstream media (forget partisan blogs that are often predictable in what they are going to say) concluded it was a poor response and akin to Katrina. Or if opinion polls showed widespread public perception that the administration’s response was lousy.

2. Obama is in danger of getting it from all sides: conservative Republicans who will use anything they can to battle him, bring his poll numbers down and define him…and environmentalists and liberals upset over the administration’s embracing some offshore drilling. Both groups will say “I told you so” (conservatives: Obama is incompetent; environmentalists: it’s a dangerous risky policy to do offshore drilling).

3. This is now yet another instance of how all the punditry and planning can’t obscure the fact that unforeseen events can shape a President’s political standing for better or for worse:
—The oil spill.
—The Arizona immigration law. Put the issue on the front burner, caused Obama to make statements about the law and Latinos, helped the GOP rally the far right of its far right base, and mobilized Latino organizations which might be motivated now to press hard for a get out to vote in 2010.
—The attempted New York City Times Square bombing. It put national security at the forefront, underscored how Pakistan remains a hub of terrorism despite recent efforts of the Pakistan government, the U.S.’ efforts and lots of money being sent by the U.S. to the country.

The oil spill will test the anticipatory skills of the Obama administration.

Unless there is some amazing miracle, the spill is likely to spread and future weeks could be marked by many news stories about the catastrophic impact on shoreline environment, animals, tourism and the fishing industry. in reality there may be limited options as to what the administration can do to halt it even if it pours virtually unlimited financial resources into the battle against the spill. Are they ready to respond ASAP to more bad news related to the oil spill? Do they have game plans in place now to deal — in specifics — with the worst on several fronts if the worst happens?

This will be one instance where having the President and administration officials out there — on the scene, available to talk to news and cable networks — might not be a bad idea.

Because there is no magic wand…and the prism this year is going to be election year.

Jon Stewart on the oil spill:

Meanwhile, there are worries of the oil spill’s impact on marine life:

JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.

themoderatevoice.com/