WASHINGTON – Chicago, you’ve got a problem. After the debate where Romney left the wingnuttery that won the nomination behind to embrace his inner Governor Mitt, it has now become acute.
Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats. Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago. – Battleground Tracking Poll: Dems less thusiastic
Chuck Todd’s analysis of the numbers on “Meet the Press” was the best example of the challenge of the President.
MR. TODD: Well, remember, this was before the debate. All right, let me see Wall Street Journal poll and we have a registered voter model that had the president up seven, but we had a likely voter model that had the president only up three at the time 49-46. So the question is why. What is going on that has Republicans doing better and becoming more likely voters? Well, it’s simply an enthusiasm gap. And we’re seeing it across the board. Look at here in this first one; 79 percent of Republicans call themselves extremely interested in this election. On a scale of 1 to 10, that means they say there are a 9 or 10 on interest in the election, 73 percent of Democrats– look at four years ago. It was a 13-point gap in favor of the Democrats.
Let me go through some various voting groups. This is an important voting group. Seniors are an important voting group to Mitt Romney now. He leads them by about 10 points in our NBC Wall Street general poll. Look at this in engagement in the election. Four years ago, it was 81 percent, pretty high, even higher this time at 87 percent. And Romney is doing better among seniors than McCain did. Let me go to an important voting group for the president. Young voters. Look at this engagement level. 52 percent now that call themselves of– of voters, 18 to 34 call themselves extremely interested in this election. Four years ago, it was 72 percent. That 20-point gap. The president wins young voters by huge margins. He is winning them by some 20-plus points. But if you don’t have this kind of enthusiasm, they’re not going to show up to the polls. And then let me give you this last one here, because this is I think the most important one and that’s Hispanics. The president is winning Hispanics by 50 points. He hit the 70 percent mark. However, look at this in terms of interest in the election. 59 percent now. It was 77 percent. What does that mean? The president got 65 percent, I believe, of the Hispanics four years ago. So even though he’s going to get more Hispanics, if less of them turn out, it’s a net zero. And yet you look at Republican enthusiasm up, senior enthusiasm up, it’s a huge problem. And by the way, all of this, pre-debate.
The demographic issue is what weighs Mitt Romney down, though a new Pew Research Poll shows promise with women, though we need more than one poll to prove this is cemented. Just as important for Romney is the shift in perception that he has the “new ideas” and is seen as leading on the economy and the deficit.
In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.
However, if the enthusiasm continues to lag with Democrats, with Republicans rising, can Romney overcome this disadvantage? Not yet, but the polls are moving.
The question I raised asking can Romney still win?, given his abysmal performance to that date, which was September 19, came with a requirement (emphasis original):
“He can still win,” as everyone across the media continues to chant in unison, but the hill he’s now got to climb to change the trajectory in states that matter, coupled with the demographic divide he chose not to court with his pick of Paul Ryan, is only passable for a political triathlete, which Romney is not.
The best that can be hoped for is a debate miracle.
Until that manifests it’s time for political writers, infotainment hosts, pundits and conservative bloggers and talk radio bloviators to let go of the “he can still win” narrative until Mitt Romney illustrates he’s going to do something to actually change the dynamics now playing out.
Mitt Romney had to do something to prove he had shaken up the race significantly enough to change the state of play that was tilted strongly to President Obama. Mitt Romney has now done exactly that.
Watch Ohio, not national polls that mean nothing, but also watch where women go to see if the gains hinted at in the Pew Research Poll start to solidify in swing states.
In fact, Public Policy Polling is now reporting that the 15-point lead once held by President Obama is now down to 6 [update].
Taylor Marsh, a veteran political analyst and former Huffington Post contributor, is the author of The Hillary Effect, available at Barnes and Noble and on Amazon. Her new-media blog www.taylormarsh.com covers national politics, women and power.