While most political junkies breathlessly wait for the next political poll, there are some who predict presidential election outcomes using different methods. One if the most awaited is from American University professor Allan Lichtman, who notes that he has successfully predicted the results of every U.S. presidential race since 1984 using his 13 keys system. His predication: Kamala Harris will win.
Now a data scientist who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election is making his: Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in a landslide:
Data scientist Thomas Miller of Northwestern University correctly predicted the 2020 Electoral College map, with the exception of Georgia. He also accurately forecasted Georgia’s two Democratic U.S. senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, defeating then-incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
Now, he’s anticipating that Vice President Kamala Harris will not only defeat former President Donald Trump in November, but will do so by a significant margin. Fortune reported that Miller is predicting that Harris’ electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) with a whopping 486 electoral votes, or President Bill Clinton’s 1996 victory over Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kansas), in which he secured 379 electoral votes.
“It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” Miller said of his forecasting model.
He had earlier predicted Trump would defeat President Joe Biden after Biden’s sluggish polling results and disastrous debate performance. But now he sees clear sailing for Harris:
“We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state,” he said.
Miller based his model around betting trends on PredictIt, which is the largest betting market for U.S. politics. Tully explained that Miller “took the Predictit odds in the 56 individual voting jurisdictions, tracked the hourly changes, and used his proprietary model to roll the data into daily odds.” Miller said he viewed PredictIt as more accurate than traditional polling, which uses a much smaller sample and is typically a week behind current trends.
And, of course, then there are the psychics. Psychic predictions about Presidential elections used to get big play in the supermarket tabloids, but with the decline of the supermarket tabloids the psychics now use You Tube or their own website. If you’re curious about what they’re saying, GO HERE.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.