CNN Poll Shows Biden 14 Points Over Trump but Democrats' challenges and pitfalls are lurking

A new CNN poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump has widened to 14 points. But as the polling gap widens, the Democrats are facing a series of challenges and pitfalls. CNN:

As protesters gather daily near the White House and the coronavirus pandemic rages on, the American public is souring on President Donald Trump. A new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS finds Trump’s approval rating down 7 points in the last month as the President falls further behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, whose support now stands at its highest level in CNN polling.

The survey also finds a growing majority of Americans feel racism is a big problem in the country today and that the criminal justice system in America favors whites over blacks. More than 8 in 10 also say that the peaceful protests that have spread throughout the nation following the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police officers are justified. Americans now consider race relations as important a campaign issue as the economy and health care, according to the survey.
View Trump and Biden head-to-head polling.

Overall 38% approve of the way Trump is handling the presidency, while 57% disapprove. That’s his worst approval rating since January 2019, and roughly on par with approval ratings for Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush at this point in their reelection years. Both went on to lose the presidency after one term.

In the race for the White House, among registered voters, Trump stands 14 points behind Biden, who officially secured enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination in CNN’s delegate estimate on Saturday. The 41% who say they back the President is the lowest in CNN’s tracking on this question back to April 2019, and Biden’s 55% support is his highest mark yet.

The result comes amid a week in which Trump’s response to protests outside the White House led to condemnation from some fellow Republicans and a rebuke from former Defense Secretary James Mattis, who served under the President.

The poll finds the public broadly disapproves of Trump’s handling of race relations (63% disapprove), and 65% say the President’s response to recent protests has been more harmful than helpful.

A broad majority of Americans say the peaceful protests happening all across the country after police violence against African Americans are justified (84% say so), and roughly a quarter (27%) say violent protests in response to police harming or killing African Americans are justified. Both figures are higher than they were when similar protests rose in the fall of 2016. Then, 67% saw peaceful protests as justified while 14% felt violent protests were.

There isn’t much of a racial or partisan difference over whether peaceful protests are justified now, but the gaps are larger over violent protests. Among Democrats, 42% consider violent protests justified in response to police violence against African Americans, while just 9% of Republicans agree. Among blacks, 39% say violent protest is justified vs. 23% among whites.

However, Democrats face a series of pitfalls and political booby-traps. Poll numbers at this point in a campaign do not necessarily mean victory in November. Democrats should ponder:

Party branding: The slogan “Defund the police”: is a gift to the GOP and there are already reports that Trump’s campaign is already getting ready to use it to attack Democrats. What is really meant is reorganizing, or revamping, or reforming the police. “Defunding” will be used in ads against Democrats to suggest they’re trying to get rid of the police force. While that is not factual, since when did factual survive a political buzz-saw of ads coupled with Fox News warnings?

Democrats staying home if they disagree. Democrats have a long history of grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory. In the late 20th century and 21st century it has always been the same. A portion of Democrats sizable enough to make a difference decide to stay home or vote for a third party because their party has taken a stand on one issue and they’re angry. Or they’re furious because their party didn’t select someone they wanted. Or — the lamest excuse yet in high-stakes Presidential elections — their party’s candidate doesn’t make them “enthusiastic.” So they don’t vote partly to teach their own party a lesson — and then spend four years wailing about what the Republicans are doing and ask how American voters could elect such GOPers. Will not running with the slogan “Defund the Police” make some Democrats stay home?

Future events and Trump’s thirst to win at any and all costs. In 2016 if someone predicted of the norms (and laws) Trump has ignored over the past three years they were called extremists. But we’ve seen how easily it is to shatter a norm (insuffient pushback) or ignore or violate laws (the system of checks and balances has not worked well). I’ve often said that if you look at the worst case scenario for something Trump could do it will happen. For instance, it is now reported he wanted martial law witih 10,000 troops on the streets to quell the protests — more troops than the U.S. has in Afghanistan. But there was major pushback from the military. What are the possible things Trump could do between now and election day? It’s not only voter suppression. In reality, any President could abuse his/her powers. But it was once unthinkable.

Meanwhile, Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarty is already signalling how Republicans will go after Democrats on the police issue if the phrase “defund” is used: ““To the police officers across the country who put on the uniform every day and uphold their oath—THANK YOU. Democrats want to defund you, but Republicans will never turn our backs on you.”

And Trump’s (ex) friend MSNBC’s Donny Deutsch on Morning Joe warned how Trump will pull out any and all stops to win:

“There is no rebranding with this president because he would not rebrand himself,” Deutsch said. “He’s not capable of it, he doesn’t want to, he’s going to double, triple, quadruple down.

“I want to give a brand warning up there we need to buckle up…Wherever your imagination can take you what the brand would do — cheat, steal, start a war, that’s where it can take you.

“June 1 was the beginning — buckle up…Things we have not thought about historically will happen. Like I said, even him starting a war, wherever your mind can take you, the lowest step what this caged animal — I’m not literally calling him a caged animal — but what a caged animal can do, he is capable of doing. I think the next five months will be the most tumultuous months our country has ever seen throughout history.”

There’s an old saying: “A word to the wise is sufficient.”

Is it?

JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.

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