A new Iowa poll underscore former Florida’s weakness with his party’s conservative base: a good chunk of them say they would never vote for him under any circumstances and he’s way down on their list of preferred candidates:
A new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows more than a third of likely Republican caucus participants say they would never vote for Bush—one factor in a new index to assess candidate strength in such a crowded field. Forty-three percent view him favorably, compared to 45 percent who view him unfavorably.
Walker is backed by 17 percent as the state enters a busy summer of candidate visits, a planned straw poll, and campaigning at the Iowa State Fair. Tied for second are Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10 percent, with Bush and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee next at 9 percent each.They’re followed at 6 percent by Rubio and 2012 Iowa caucuses winner Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania. With eight months to go before the 2016 caucuses, there’s plenty of time for movement.
“Scott Walker’s momentum puts him solidly in first place,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “For the time being, he’s doing the right things to make the right first impression.”
In the previous Iowa Poll, taken in January, Walker stood atop the field at 15 percent.
Walker shouldn’t count on an Iowa win just yet, especially with such a large and unsettled field. Four years ago, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and then-Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann sat atop the Iowa Poll at 23 percent and 22 percent. Romney ultimately finished a close second in Iowa, while Bachmann ended up sixth and exited the race the following morning.
Meanwhile, Marco Rubio is on the ascent:
The latest poll shows Rubio is the most popular second choice at 12 percent, an indication of potential strength. Among first-choice preferences, the junior senator from Florida doubled his showing since the Iowa Poll in January.
When first and second choices are combined, Rubio ranks second to Walker, 18 percent to 27 percent. “That may foreshadow growing stature,” Selzer said of Rubio.
Rubio is the one to watch and from several accounts, he’s the one Democrat fears the most.
Bush photo: By Michael Vadon (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.