The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has set in motion realignments in balances of power within the region and the neighborhood, which could drain American influence around the world. This realignment is being exacerbated by President Joe Biden’s tussle with China.
The realignments have been accelerated by Biden’s apparent handover of Afghanistan to the Taliban, which is an ethnic Pashtun faction. This is perceived as flagrant injustice by other Afghans because the Taliban do not represent all Pashtuns, who make up about 45% of the population. Worse, they are actively disliked, even hated, by the remaining 55% made up by ethnic Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara, Baluch and dozens of other tribes.
For many of the others, a Taliban regime in Kabul is another occupying force over them that is only slightly more desirable than the foreign occupiers that almost everybody despised.
Washington and its western allies habitually see the Taliban as modern thugs using the most barbaric practices of medieval Islam to terrorize all Afghans into bending the knee to their harsh rule and systematic humiliation of women.
But most Afghans see them as a bunch of Pashtun militias, now quarreling with one another, to whom Biden has suddenly gifted the entire country. Now, influenced by him, the United Nations wants to deliver urgent financial and other help to the Taliban to mitigate imminent humanitarian tragedies looming at unprecedented scale.
Though urgently required, that help may spark a civil war because it will allow the Taliban a respite to tighten their grip on the people. Many Pashtun and non-Pashtun Afghans may revolt against consolidation of minority rule by a fractious group of Taliban-led Pashtun militias, even though they united behind the Taliban to get rid of foreign occupiers.
This kind of instability could devastate Biden’s political standing within the US and around the world because the chances will be almost zero of honoring his repeated promises to evacuate all those who served America inside Afghanistan before the withdrawal.
The US will remain the world’s overwhelming military power. But erosion has already begun in the soft power that brings numerous benefits to Washington and acceptance by the majority of nations of America’s hegemonic influence over the world order, including UN-sponsored international agreements and laws.
An early sign of a new Afghan civil war came on Sunday when a deadly blast at the main mosque in central Kabul targeted senior Taliban leaders attending a funeral service for the mother of spokesman Zabihullah Muhajid.
None of the leaders were killed but many civilian casualties occurred although the numbers are not yet known. No one has claimed responsibility but the chief suspects are Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K).
ISIS-K conducted several bombings against Taliban members in the eastern city of Jalalabad and a devastating suicide attack in August at Kabul airport, which killed 13 US military personnel and caused hundreds of casualties among Afghan civilians.
It is a determined enemy of the Taliban and their chief mentor Pakistan. So Islamabad has very little ability to protect the new Taliban regime from being destabilized. China, the chief mentor of Pakistan, is even less capable of protecting the Taliban.
The Taliban could reach compromise with ISIS-K to keep the peace but would have to become yet more repressive in the name of Islam. That would be a serious setback for Biden for his pledge to rescue locals who helped America.
This difficult situation is exacerbated by Beijing’s aggressive reaction to Biden’s new AUKUS military pact with Australia and Britain to manufacture long-range nuclear powered submarines to deter China’s burgeoning navy and military.
To rattle sabers in return, Beijing has flown 93 of its best warplanes near Taiwan since October 1. This is the largest air power display so far of its determination to prevent closer military ties with the US of the independent democratic country that it insists is a province of China.
Beijing is also distrustful of Biden’s resolute push to build up the QUAD group of India, Japan, Australia and the US in the Indo-Pacific as a counterweight to Chinese influence.
Iran, which is an outlaw and pariah in Washington’s eyes, fears and loathes the Taliban because they are Sunni Muslim zealots and enemies of Iran’s Shia Muslim theocracy. To offset the power realignments triggered by US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Tehran has already held four secret meetings in Iraq since April this year with its other Sunni enemy Saudi Arabia.
There was credible talk at the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York last month of a potential reduction of tensions between the Saudis and Iranians. That would undercut Biden’s stated foreign policy goal of reaching a separate new understanding with Teheran on its nuclear program, which Israel suspects is less than a year away from building a usable nuclear weapon.