2009 was a disappointing year partly because President Barack Obama fell short of the hopes raised when he came to power last January following his inspiring electioneering. Perhaps we expected too much of just a man. Most of the world, even North Korea, expected a healer’s touch but Obama looks increasingly like a fly trapped in a spider’s web of political complexities.

2010 will tell whether he is mainly an orator or an incisive player thinking several moves ahead to win through masterly preplanned strokes just when others think he is wilting under pressure.

In the closing hours of 2009, his opponents are many. Large numbers in the US seek to knee cap him in a mid-term election year. Abroad, he has few genuine friends. Even the affections of Britain, an enduring ally, are faltering because Obama has treated it with the aloofness of an intellectual rather than the warmth of a “mate”. The alliance is strong but hearts and minds are starting to cool. Most in Britain, Europe and other places still love Obama but the thought is rising that it may be a love unrequited.

Barack remains admirable as a person bursting with noble thoughts that could change the world for the better. But President Obama harried by the realpolitik of advancing his country’s interests may not be capable of delivering on the hopes that inspired the admiration.

The two main potentially adversarial foreign policy relationships are with Russia and China. Both those governments are doing a complex diplomatic dance probing to assess American weaknesses and find paths to making gains however small. Both are inching towards authoritarian regimes to strengthen power at home and draw attention to Obama’s inability to hinder them. The picture is far from clear but signs are emerging in both countries of the waning influence of America’s model of liberal democracy underpinned by human freedoms .

Iran, a tinderbox on the edge of conflagration likely to acquire nuclear weapons secretly within three years, is slipping out of Obama’s reach. The White House and Europe seem to be at a loss about how to deal with Teheran’s mischief, while China and Russia quietly reinforce business and political ties there.
The security of Israel, dignity for Palestinians and stability in Iraq remain open questions not much nearer solution than in President George Bush’s final years. Terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan continues without credible signs of abatement, while several opinion leaders in India, a potential American partner, openly say that Bush was a better friend than Obama.

Significant new Europeans like Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary are worried that Obama is less committed to protecting their nascent freedoms against Russian interference than was Bush. They may be misreading Russian intentions but their psychology is emotionally charged with memories of the Soviet era. They do not yet trust Russian rhetoric about friendship and cling to the White House to pin their hopes for democracy and progress.

European friends like Germany, Spain, Italy and France are waiting to extricate themselves from America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. They also complain about an Obama tilt towards China and the Pacific Rim away from traditional European interests. This might just be Europeans trying to take more from America than they give back but it does indicate that the charm of Obama’s eloquence is starting to fade.

There are many other elements arising from employment, trade, finance, environment, climate change, poverty reduction and disease prevention where Obama’s leadership would be welcome. Even Gitmo, torture and issues related to the Geneva Conventions on war remain foggy after 11 months of Obama. (I will try to address some of these in subsequent contributions.)

Meanwhile, as the clock prepares to strike midnight, let us wish Obama the audacity to act more vigorously in 2010 so that we might buttress our audacity to hope.