AI-generated fake news can have devastating impacts, as in India’s Manipur State.

The malign impacts of fake audio and video recordings posted on social media could become a deluge by next year, fueled by the fast-improving capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) to digitally clone voices and images.

A foretaste of chaotic political impacts is currently visible in Manipur, a remote State in eastern India with just 3.5 million people. Fake videos have set two large tribal groups on rampage causing over 150 deaths and displacing thousands of people from their homes since May.

AI communication company DeepMedia estimates that about 500,000 video and voice deepfakes will be shared on social media sites globally in 2023. The technology is very easy to use. Anybody’s voice and image can be cloned from a commercial website for as little as $5 a month.

Misinformation and fake news on social media distorted by artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to cause severe interference in the November 2024 US presidential elections, aggravated by meddling from China, Russia and other anti-Americans.

Malign interference in elections is previewed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces national polls in May 2024. His opponents in parliament are trying to weaponize the fighting in Manipur, worsened by fake news, to damage his re-election prospects. They have stitched together a no confidence motion to be debated this week, despite knowing that it only has nuisance value because they cannot win.

Many see AI as a revolution and a seismic shift in human achievements. It will transform people’s lives in countless positive ways but it can also be abused to generate severe social unrest and disrupt domestic politics, elections and democracy.

In Manipur, long-standing tensions between the majority Meitei community and tribal Kuki minority provided fertile soil for AI-generated hatred and fear. Under India’s Constitution, the traditionally backward Kuki mountain tribe receives affirmative action benefits such as easier access to government jobs and educational institutions.

Meitei demands for similar benefits triggered protests by Kukis worried about erosion of their privileges. Explosion into bloodshed came after false videos of attacks on women inflamed both sides. Local authorities shut down all internet services to prevent the spread of false news but to little avail.

A graphic image of the body of a woman, wrapped in a plastic bag, incorrectly said to be a Meitei nurse who was raped and murdered by Kuki men, enraged the Meitei. But the image was of a young women murdered in Delhi last year.

Another false claim on social media said the bodies of 37 Meitei women, who had been raped and killed, lay in a Manipur hospital alongside a Meitei child aged seven. The hospital flatly denied this.

A brutally graphic video showed the assault and killing of a Kuki woman on a road purportedly in Manipur. But the doctored video was from a murder in Myanmar and the woman was not from Manipur.

However, real horror did strike. A genuine video showed two women being paraded naked by a mob of men in Manipur, outraging the entire nation. Local police did open a case of gang rape and made arrests but only two months later after orders from the Indian Supreme Court.

A shocked Modi declared that all Indians had been shamed and ordered severe punishment for the guilty. “The law will take its strongest steps, with all its might. What happened to the daughters of Manipur can never be forgiven,” he said.

The Manipur experience has shown how lethal the effects can be of falsifying videos to change location and narrative. The worry now in India is how to protect the sanctity of next year’s federal elections. Elections can involve 900 million voters and are traditionally peaceful, without armed attacks against authorities.

An incident has already happened between two rival politicians in the southern Tamil Nadu State. Earlier this year, one of them denied the authenticity of a damaging recording and claimed that it was faked by AI. It was proven authentic by several sources including DeepMind, signaling that rivals can seek a “liar’s dividend” by claiming falsely that something true is faked.

Around the time that Modi faces election, Biden’s campaign will enter its crucial phase in America amid raging partisan quarrels. Elections for the European Parliament in the European Union’s 27 countries also take place in June 2024 against the backdrop of horrific war in Ukraine and the growing power of populist and right-wing parties.

Remote Manipur presents a cautionary tale for exercising vigilance about AI-generated false news since both Americans and Europeans will go to the polls amid intense political infighting. That gives plenty of opportunities to arouse hate using home-grown AI-based interference.