“UPDATE”:
The first results are in – for whatever it’s worth:
All five votes in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, went to Biden. “The ballots were cast in the minutes after midnight, becoming some of the first cast and counted on Election Day.”
In Millsfield, N.H., Trump got 16 votes and Biden 5.
On the other hand, Hart’s Location, N.H., a community that “also typically holds a midnight vote,” canceled this year due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Original Post:
In “A Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation for November 3,” this non-Nate Silver ventured way out of his expertise/comfort zone to guestimate what impact both the expected record-breaking voter turnout and the unprecedented volume of the early vote might have on the outcome of tomorrow’s election.
Below is an update to the original “calculations,” using the latest available numbers, along with a couple of caveats — one sadly unique to this election.
As of 1:00 PM Eastern Time on Nov. 2 the United States Elections Project reports the total number of early votes (in-person plus mail-in) cast to be 96,441,706 (96 million) vs. 85 million predicted nearly a week ago.
FiveThirtyEight is now predicting a turnout of about 154 million vs the 150 million used in the calculations last week. That would leave 58 million votes still to be cast vs. the 65 million estimated last week.
Finally, using political party registration statistics provided by states that have party registration (20), the US Elections Project’s latest estimate on the early vote breakdown is as follows:
Democrats: 45.3 %
Republicans: 30.4 %
No party affiliation: 23.6 %
Minor Parties: .7%
Allocating the “No Party Affiliation” vote 50-50 to each of the two major parties makes the early vote percentages:
Democrats: 57%
Republicans: 42%
Using these percentages instead of D: 60%, R 40% for the early vote and flipping them around for the Nov. 3 vote (vs. D: 40%, R: 60%.) we get the following results:
Early vote:
Biden: 57% of 96 million = 54.7 million votes
Trump: 42% of 96 million = 40.3 million votes
Nov. 3 vote:
Biden: 42% of 58 million = 24.4 million votes
Trump 57% of 58million = 33.1 million votes
That would give Biden 79.1 million votes and Trump 73.4 million votes, for a margin of nearly 6 million in favor of Biden.
Let us hope that my estimates and calculations are way off because there has to be a much, much larger popular vote margin in favor of Biden in order to deal with the vagaries, idiosyncrasies, capriciousness, unpredictability and complexities of the Electoral College vote.
However, while frustrating and irritating, the nation has dealt with the electoral system before.
What is unprecedented, alarming and un-American are the attacks that are certain to come — have already been launched — by Trump on the integrity and legitimacy of the voting and election process – on democracy itself.
What Barton Gellman in his “How Trump Could Attempt a Coup” at The Atlantic refers to as:
A wretched presidential campaign has played out at last, but Election Day is not how this story ends. Unable to overtake his opponent in the polls, Donald Trump decided months ago to run against the election itself. That race does not conclude when the ballots are counted. Trump has raged against fictional plots to steal his victory, maligning routine procedures such as voting by mail and counting ballots until there are no more to count. His rage will not diminish if he is defeated.
Please read more here, and – if you have not voted yet – PLEASE VOTE!
