Did the Midwest primaries reveal that the tea party ain’t what it was cracked up to supposed to be at the ballot box? Was it a good night for the Tea Party Movement or were there rumblings of distaste from voters that they don’t entirely like the highly-touted strong political brew?
On a day when conservative talk radio and blogs are trumpeting a vote in Missouri that is bad news for the White House — voters in Missouri overwhelmingly turned a big thumbs down on the health reform requirement that people must buy health insurance in a referendum that has little legal effect but political consquences — the actual results weren’t stellar for the tea party movement. And some of the electoral results appeared to be good news for moderates.
First Read as always best summarizes the vote and its context:
Last night’s three headlines: Here are the headlines from last night’s Midwest primaries: 1) It was a victorious night for moderate and mainstream Republicans (translation: the Tea Party has a ceiling even in GOP primaries); 2) Another incumbent went down to defeat; and 3) Missouri voters approved a referendum opposing the health-care law’s mandate. In Kansas’ GOP Senate primary, Jerry Moran narrowly defeated Todd Tiahrt, and he’s the overwhelming favorite to succeed Sen. Sam Brownback (R), who’s running for governor. Meanwhile, in Michigan’s GOP gubernatorial primary, former Gateway exec Rick Snyder — the “one tough nerd” — beat his more conservative opponents (like state AG Mike Cox and Congressman Pete Hoekstra), in part by winning crossover Democrats and independents. Snyder will face off against Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero in the fall to replace term-limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D).
First Read adds:
Keep an eye on Snyder: So in a midterm cycle where GOP primary voters largely have been choosing the most conservative candidate, the Moran and Snyder wins reverse that trend (and stay tuned for Tennessee tomorrow for this new-mini-trend to get a third example). Here’s a couple of other things to consider about the Snyder win. One, given that he will be the overwhelming favorite against Bernero, will that possibly help Republicans in the state’s competitive House races this fall, like MI-1, MI-7 and even MI-9? Two, Snyder — with his moderate credentials in a Dem-leaning swing state – could become a rising political star. Get to know this guy; he could be a cross between Charlie Crist and Haley Barbour; meaning he’s got a pragmatist streak that may lead him one day to be criticizing the Democratic administration on something and the next, standing next to him, endorsing a pilot program.
Newsweek is more blunt in an article titled “The Tea Party’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Night..Moderates rule a series of high-profile primaries”. Here’s part of it:
The “weak tea” trend continued Tuesday in a series of marquee primary battles stretching from the upper to lower Midwest. In Michigan, moderate Rick Snyder—a former Gateway executive who supports embryonic-stem-cell research and sought to attract Democratic crossover voters with ads featuring Bill Ford—was competing against a flock of more conservative candidates (Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, state Attorney General Mike Cox, and Rep. Pete Hoekstra) for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. In Missouri, Rep. Roy Blunt fought for Kit Bond’s open U.S. Senate seat against state Sen. Chuck Purgason, an antitax, antigovernment conservative who has worked hard to position himself as a true-blue Tea Partier. And in Kansas, the two orthodox conservative congressmen, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, running to replace Sam Brownback, seemed basically indistinguishable until Tiahrt started harping on some of Moran’s more moderate votes and secured the endorsement of a lady named Sarah Palin as a result.
Unfortunately for the Tea Party, the so-called mainstream candidates—Moran, Blunt, and Snyder—swept Tuesday night’s races. Palin’s endorsement couldn’t push Tiahrt past Moran; he was trailing by 20 points in the polls when she announced her support earlier this summer, and lost last night by 4. Purgason’s strategy of pounding Blunt as the consummate Washington insider didn’t pay off; he never raised much money and lost last night by almost 60 points. And Snyder’s vow to “reach across the aisle”—a cardinal sin in the Tea Party bible—actually paid off, landing him 11 points ahead of Hoekstra, his next-closest opponent. The news wasn’t much better for the Tea Party in a handful of House races. Social moderates, including Kansas’s Kevin Yoder, won several high-profile contests over their further-right challengers.
Newsweek (a venerable newsmagazine that got the good news this week that it’ll have a new owner who intends to keep the magazine’s style of reporting and analysis intact) notes that the Missouri vote is good news — a “glimmer” of hope — for the tea party.
In reality, American politics may be boiling down to which party many voters find less offensive, less scary, and less repelling in terms of corruption and rhetoric. As I’ve noted often, the historical conditions, economic conditions and political conditions (Obama has not proven to be a political master such as FDR and the Dems still seem to several beats behind the GOP when it comes to knowing how to whip up their supporters and shape vital press narratives) are ripe for BIG Republican gains this November.
It it doesn’t happen, it’ll be due to what those of us (and I am one) who are big, real life tea drinkers know:
We love our tea — but if we get some that is bitter and rancid we pour it out and seek a more palatable cup. The brand is not what’s important; it’s the flavor of the tea.
The problem for the GOP and the tea party: radio and cable talk show hosts who continue to exert great influence over the style of rhetoric and the points that become repeated verbally, on talk shows, in Congress and on online partisan sites don’t want to soften rhetoric to build coalitions and bring people over.
So 2010 could boil down to which is greater: the tea party movement and Republican’s rhetorical overreaching hubris or the Democrats’ seeming political ineptness? Moderates and RINOS may be vanishing from the GOP, but they’re not gone and not going as fast as some conservative hoped.
One irony: the original tea party members — before the movement essentially became co-opted by many in the Republican establishment — were highly critical of George W. Bush’s spending and big government tendencies and touted the movement as nonpartisan. Sarah Palin and others tied to the movement then essentially began defending Bush and the new image of the tea party (any polls notwithstanding) is that it’s essentially GOP talk show culture conservatives in another incarnation often defending George Bush.
If this perception continues, it could further undermine the tea party’s efficacy as the Democrats press the argument that electing Republicans means re-electing the George Bush agenda without George Bush. This argument reportedly could influence many independent voters.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.