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Poll: Republican Enthusiasm for Mid-Term Elections Vote At All Time High

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A new Gallup poll has more bad news for Democrats and good news for Republicans: it shows Republicans’ and Republican leaning independents’ enthusiasm for voting in the mid-term elections as being at an all time high — and Democrats’ enthusiasm as seriously sagging.

It’s no small deal: mid-term elections traditionally have lower turnout than a general election so the name of the game is party enthusiasm. And it looks at this point as if the Democrats are losing this game — badly:

An average of 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have said they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year compared with past elections, the highest average Gallup has found in a midterm election year for either party since the question was first asked in 1994.

The prior high for a party group was 50% more enthusiastic for Democrats in 2006, which is the only one of the last five midterm election years in which Democrats have had an enthusiasm advantage. In that election, Democrats won back control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time since 1994.

The current average is based on four measures of this enthusiasm question since February, including the recent June 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll. In that poll, 53% of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting and 39% were less enthusiastic, while 35% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about voting and 56% were less enthusiastic.

And here’s the truly good news (for GOPers)/bad news (for Democrats): Gallup notes that “Republicans’ net score of +14 more enthusiastic in the latest poll compared with the Democrats’ net score of -21 represents the largest relative party advantage Gallup has measured in a single midterm election-year poll.”

This raises the possibly that 2010 will be an election year when:

  • It will be a blowout election for Republicans and the Democrats run the real risk of losing control of Congress — if this remains the same. Right now Obama is under fire from his own party’s progressive wing which seems disappointed in his general performance, continuation of some Bush era policies, and willingness to compromise with centrists and some conservatives. They perceived Obama’s election as a liberal mandate (which polls suggest was not the case at all).
  • The Democrats can negate some of this bad outlook by doing an effective get out the vote — which means motivating party members to get to the polls. Recent reports indicate the Dems plan on trying to get the first time young voters and minorities out in force in particular. And there is much speculation on how many Latino voters will get out and vote given the new anti-immigration law in Arizona and Hispanic voters souring on Republicans.
  • The mid term results could lead to consquences within each party. A huge Democratic route will be blamed on Obama and will further reduce his already-reduced clout. If the Democrats do better — especially if they do much better — than expected, it will increase intra-party tensions and divisions in the GOP.
  • An already tense, polarized nation will be more polarized than ever as both parties try to whip up their bases by throwing out “red meat” to get their parties’ voters to the polls.