File this in your Here We Go Again File. Dick Morris, who was once a solid political operative truly considered at the top of the game who worked for members of both parties, is now predicting that a massive Republican tidal wave in November will virtually put an end to public education’s dominance since GOP power will mean people can now choose to send their kids to private schools.

GO HERE to read Crooks & Liars’ Heather Saturday’s take on it. And here, courtesy of C&L, is the video so you can watch and make up your own mind:

That’s truly a dramatic prediction — about change that would dwarf the kind of change on the left/center-left that Barack Obama is trying to do.

But it most likely will not be the reality. To wit:

Right now it most certainly seems as if the GOP will make big gains. But the GOP is facing a problem. Historically the party not holding the White House makes gains two years into a President’s term. If there will truly be a Republican landslide it will require a)voter disgust with Obama and the Democrats b)a general feeling that the economy is still just, plain lousy, c)Democratic bumbling, d)White House incompetence on some issues or crises, e) a bigger enthusiasm gap between GOPers and Democrats, f)a better Republican get out the vote operation on election day (Karl Rove is reportedly working on organizing)and — a big factor — e)that the Republicans don’t alienate swing voters and even some Democrats by partisan hubris, overreaching, politics that only appeal to Tea Party members, or excess that sparks independent voter backlash. In other words: it really is not a “given” yet that Republicans will “own” Congress (as much as lobbyists currently do) after the elections. It looks bad for the Dems — but much can change between now and November. A defeat and a massive landslide are not the same things. Rather than hear what a partisan with a Fox news contract is himself rooting for, if you truly want to follow the rev-up to 2010 go to THIS PAGE to see how it’s shaping up.

We’re already seeing that it’s hard to bring about major change. If the GOP wins and tries to change education, unless it has the votes, it would have to override an Obama veto. Most likely outlook: ain’t gonna happen.

Dick Morris is an excellent, intriguing writer, a fun partisan talking head to listen to, and a reliable lock-step Republican on almost any issue these days. But his record in solid political predictions is that he is accuracy challenged. If you want to read, listen to and follow someone who has a reliable record in terms of analysis and political prediction follow THIS GUY.

JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.

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