For West Asia, 2010 has not begun well. The mess in Iran is increasing by the day and holds peril unprecedented for the entire region. If the government, however reprehensible, falls into disarray the real possibility arises of a huge arc of violent political and civil instability stretching through Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Palestine to Israel. The possibility of a new American war is small but that holds little comfort.

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and Turkey are the countries bordering on Iran. Within it, 51 percent of the people are original Persians while 49% are Azeri, Kurd, Arab, Baluchi, Turkmen, Armenian, Assyrian and Georgian. Tribal groups that live across borders are unruly and powerful, in particular Bakhtiari, Khamseh, Lurs and Qashqai. Several of these ethnies and tribes also live in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

If the complexities of Iraq and Afghanistan confound American taxpayers and families losing children there, Iran is truly a Pandora’s Box. With a population of nearly 72 million, it outstrips the 23 million of Iraq and 28 million of Afghanistan. Iraqis and Afghans are pigheaded, dour, and irreducible but Iran is much worse. Its people and rulers are colored by atrocities that happened 1300 years ago creating a schism in Islam that continues to dominate their daily lifestyle and thoughts.

It is true that the current Iranian leadership has committed sacrilege by shooting and killing peaceful demonstrators during the holiest Ashura period in Shiite Islam. But it is foolhardy to pin hopes on this outrage for the regime’s overthrow by popular protests similar to those that caused the Shah of Iran’s fall 30 years ago.

The protests may well be genuinely popular rather than being fomented by American and British money spent through the Iranian Diaspora. But the regime’s overthrow, if it happens, is likely to be chaotic since the opposition has no leader similar to Ayatollah Khomeini to impose a controlled and discipline takeover. Even Khomeini ruled in relative chaos for nearly five years but Iran was not surrounded by violent insurgency and almost daily terrorism in three of its chief neighbors.

If supreme leader Ali Khamenei is deposed, the internal ethnic minorities and tribes will not be bystanders. They will take advantage of the power vacuum to advance their niches in the corridors of power, similar to the power grab in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Republican Guards, who are currently maneuvering to acquire wealth and power by rendering Khamenei a puppet, will be no match for ethnic and tribal insurgents around the country. A key reason is that the insurgents will have safe haven in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Southern Iraq and Kurdish Iraq.

The other neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan are already unstable and may also be forced to provide safe haven. Turkey is the only strong neighbor but it is currently in the grip of an Islamic-leaning rather than secular leadership. Its relationship with the US and Europe is much cooler than just five years ago although it remains a NATO member. Ankara will refuse to be an American proxy in handling Iran since it has turned resolutely eastward for business and political ties in recent years.

Against this backdrop, the Obama Whitehouse is sinking into a quicksand of rhetoric about severe economic sanctions through the United Nations and unilaterally, if Teheran continues its covert attempts to acquire nuclear weapons.

President Barack Obama would do well to reconsider the extreme pressures he wants to marshal against Teheran in coming weeks. Iran’s acquisition of usable nuclear weapons may be half a decade away but internal chaos is around the corner if the Whitehouse does not quietly help to bring back stability within Iran.

On and off civil war within Iran, or several small local civil wars as in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, will bring the perils of political and civil instability to the entire oil rich Gulf region and Central Asian countries. It will weaken Turkey’s alliance ties to the West as Ankara maneuvers to stop being sucked into the turmoil to its East and South. Israel will become more isolated surrounded by a sea of instability while Syria regains power over Lebanon as the Sunni Shiite divide widens in the entire region.

One shudders to think of the burdens caused to American families losing children and to American taxpayers, their nation’s debt, military travails and unemployment. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail all around in 2010 than those of 2009.