The first day of October brought surprise with the announcement that Donald and Melania Trump have both tested positive for Covid-19 and Trump has been transferred to a hospital. But the real October surprise may still be ahead.
The expressions of sympathy for the first couple from opponents, including Joe Biden, are dignified. But they are mixed with a growing hope that the infection, frightening for Trump’s family, could help to cause his undoing in the November presidential elections.
One surprise could be that Trump’s hospitalization may increase the determination of his base to come out in larger numbers to vote on polling day, putting him in pole position.
That would frustrate the hope of Biden supporters that Trump’s coronavirus infection will turn more voters against him for bungling the pandemic response and leaving millions of Americans in precarious health conditions, while himself enjoying the best health care.
If postal ballots put Biden on top after a Trump lead on November 3, Trump’s base could bay for blood to project their leader as a warrior who put himself in Covid’s maw in his crusade to protect the economy and their livelihoods
It may be wishful thinking to expect Trump’s hospitalization to become a cause of disenchantment with him of his base and undecided voters.
For instance, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson saw no negative political reaction although he was in intensive care for 48 hours, hospitalized for eight days and worked from a distance for more than three weeks last April.
After a small uptick in poll numbers, which Trump might also have, Johnson lost the bounce. He fell back because of other issues, including rising economic anxiety and his severe struggles with European countries for Brexit negotiations. Britain will exit from the European Union on December 31 and somewhat chaotic negotiations to ease that departure in orderly manner are supposed to conclude later this month.
The coronavirus impact on Johnson was personal. He often praises health workers for their self-sacrifice and dedication to saving infected patients and his government is providing more financial and other help to fight the pandemic.
A Trump admirer, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro was infected by Covid-19 in July and distanced himself for a month, although he did not have an existential battle with the virus as did Johnson.
Like Trump, Bolsonaro has a die-hard base of about one-third of voters. Opponents accuse him of ignoring science and getting his just deserts because he ignored masks and social distancing. Like Trump, some Twitterati wished death upon him from the coronavirus.
Bolsonaro seems to have gone through a sea change in his attitude towards Covid-19 and its victims. Instead of downplaying its menace, he has now put in place a raft of measures to cushion its economic impacts on peoples’ lives, including income support for the poor and those who have lost jobs. A small poll of 2,000 voters last month gave him a 40% approval rating, which is the best since he became president in January 2019.
In contrast, Trump has been struck just four weeks before the polls but it remains possible that the coronavirus will make him more empathetic towards Americans afflicted by it.
He might spring a real October surprise by finally announcing a sensible national strategy to ring fence the pandemic and provide the right kind of federal support consistently to states and cities that need the most help. That kind of last minute common sense might get him over the hill with undecided fringes and secure a convincing lead on November 3.
Some of the infections may have happened at the Rose Garden event last Saturday when Trump announced Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his choice for the Supreme Court. Most people arrived at the Rose Garden wearing masks but took them off during the event.
To blame the spread on not wearing masks is questionable because ordinary masks protect others from the air-born droplets sprayed by the wearer but are not as effective in protecting the wearer from breathing in the droplets of others.
Several persons from Trump’s entourage announced this week they have tested positive for Covid-19. Reportedly, they include former White House counselor Kellyanne Conway, Trump aide Hope Hicks, Republican Senators Mike Lee and Thom Tillis, University of Notre Dame President John Jenkins, Trump’s campaign manager Bill Stepien and head of the Republican National Committee Ronna McDaniel.