The aftermaths of Britain’s exit from the European Union might be the undoing of Donald Trump’s steam roller in the US presidential elections.
Contrary to some expectations, this is a distinct possibility as panic sets in on the swing voters who gave last minute victory to Brexit. They surprised even hardcore Brexit leaders, who did not expect to win.
There is unprecedented confusion bordering on nervous breakdown among Britain’s politicians and the country is leaderless at the moment.
Both the ruling Conservatives and opposition Labor parties are riven by existential splits likely to change forever the steadiness that has long characterized British politics.
Leadership battles in both parties may not be sorted out until October and then the new leaders will have to grapple with how to lead their supporters into uncharted territory after 43 years of being sheltered in the EU.
Regardless of how they voted, economic pain for ordinary people – the kind who chose Brexit — has begun. No early end is feasible, especially if full exit from the EU does happen in the coming 2-3 years.
As evidence of British pain grows and becomes more visible, Trump’s supporters might start to see through his glitzy assertions of economic gains and national greatness.
Leave campaigners and voters did not think through the implications and consequences. Freedom from being in the EU web will not suddenly transform Britain into a splendid eagle royally tracing its separate proud paths.
The intricate web of economic tangles among 21st century countries imposes too many burdens and responsibilities whether or not Britain exits the EU and regardless of its vaunted economic prowess and financial skills.
Odds given by bookmakers, the most astute bellwether of voting trends, were in favor of remaining in the EU even as 72% of voters starting heading for polling booths.
Now, voters’ remorse is rising. More than three million people rushed to sign an online petition calling for a new referendum to reverse the June 23 decision from leave to remain.
Even Boris Johnson, the most Trump-like Brexit campaigner, is back-peddling and suggests that there should be no hurry to actually dump the EU.
He wants a new deal to ensure that Britain continues to profit from the EU without being a member.
Meanwhile, he wants to almost indefinitely delay a formal declaration of exit from the EU.
Compared to Trump, he is a battle-hardened politically savvy operative, yet like Trump, he wants to have the cake and eat it too.
Early arguments that the drastic falls in currency and equity valuations will be short-lived after the first shocks look less credible by the day.
The British economy seems headed for at least 3-5 years of sharp pain. There is a real possibility of prolonged drops in the values of the main vehicles that store the savings of millions of ordinary Britons, including property prices, insurance and pension fund investments, and health care.
Sterling has plummeted, equity markets have shed $2 trillion, Britain has lost its triple A rating, and banks and large companies may move to France or Germany to benefit from EU markets. Almost everyone has frozen investments in Britain until the Brexit fall out become clearer.
For ordinary Britons, pain will grow inexorably in the form of lower incomes, pensions, weaker pound, worsened terms of trade, erosion of London’s financial clout and more severe under-funding of their beloved national health care system.
Making matters worse, Brexit leaders were unprepared for victory. Some admitted they expected the remain camp to win by a wafer-thin margin, thus, equipping Prime Minister David Cameron to demand yet more derogations from EU rules than he secured in the pre-referendum negotiations of February 2016.
Evidently, voters decided that EU membership was too constraining for their sense of national self and identity. They chose to walk alone without being fettered by pesky continental Europeans.
Trump’s supporters are rooted in the same fearful population segments as those who drove daggers into the heart of EU membership. They hanker for more homogeneity in their communities and less diversity and openness toward outsiders.
These segments include older, poorly educated, lower middle class, white males who fear technological change, globalization and immigration.
Brexit and Trump are their screams against relentless erosion of their countries’ economic preponderance, which delivered job security and expanding prosperity until the 21st century to most people in America, Britain and Europe.
Theirs is an ill-tempered battle against the rise of large emerging markets like China, Russia, India and Brazil, which are fighting to bring American and European living standards to their people.
The fears that drive Trump’s well-wishers also drove Britons to Brexit. His demagoguery is bringing existential disarray to the Republican Party just as Brexit is bringing disarray to both the Conservative and Labor Parties.
Similar population segments are also delivering existential disarray to domestic politics in such stalwart EU members as France, Holland, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Greece and others.
If the EU is sharply destabilized or starts to disintegrate, pain similar to that spreading in Britain because of Brexit would spread throughout Europe.
That would severely weaken US influence around the world because its outsize role stands upon the pillars of economic and military alliances with Britain, France, Germany, Italy and other Europeans.
photo credit: Donald Trump via photopin (license)