South Carolina and Nevada have condensed the Republican nomination to three paths – Trump, the Establishment Lane and the remnants of the Tea Party. The Trump path is easily understandable – Donald Trump has turned the political world upside down with his brashness and ability to “Jedi Mind Trick” the press by having them cover him non-stop while they pretend they are against his candidacy. As Newt Gingrich said on the Fox News Network last week, the rise of Trump is all media driven – they gave him legitimacy and now he is the odds on favorite to win the Republican nomination.
The Establishment Lane consists of Marco Rubio and John Kasich. The primary map does not look good for either man with Super Tuesdays 1 and 2 coming up in the next three weeks. Rubio is significantly behind Trump in his home state of Florida. Even if Kasich dropped out, adding his support to Rubio would put Marco in the mid 20’s of support while Trump is in the mid to high 30’s. The good news for Rubio is he is diametrically oppostite of Trump’s message and Trump’s audience. Rubio has a chance of beating Trump to the nomination but time is running out.
The Tea Party (or conservative) lane consists of Cruz and Carson. Cruz has a more receptive primary schedule in the south over the next three weeks. His problem is he has lost control of his brand. The brand of Ted Cruz has morphed from courageous outsider to a political insider who is the epitome of corruption who will say or do anything to win. If that wasn’t bad enough, Cruz’s only path to victory is to run to the right of Trump in an anti-establishment year – in other words, to outtrump Trump. Finally, like Rubio above, even if Carson was to suspend his campaign – Carson’s supporters would not follow Cruz because of the dirty tricks pulled in Iowa. Cruz has no allies to add to his base of support, and in politics, no allies is the quickest way of turning victory into defeat.
Carson and Kasich are the wild cards in this race. Kasich is holding out until Ohio votes on March 15th. Carson has said he will reassess his campaign around the middle of March. Both men can play an important role in the nomination process if they choose to do so. A Rubio – Carson ticket would give Rubio much needed credibility in the evangelical community and widen the big tent in the general election to Hispanics and African-Americans.
After almost a year of campaigning and punditry, the road to the White House is much clearer. Which path will be chosen? It’s going to be fun to watch!
Faculty, Department of Political Science, Towson University. Graduate from Liberty University Seminary.