A new poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton narrowing the gap with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who once had a whopping lead — and that showman Donald Trump’s polling numbers are now also down. But few analysts expect Clinton to win, or Trump to lose.
Sen. Bernie Sanders’ once-formidable lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire has shrunk to just 7 points, putting another Clinton comeback within reach two days before the pivotal first primary, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll reveals.
Longtime Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has also lost significant support – down to 31 percent – while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz moved up to 16 percent after his Iowa win, closely followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 15 percent, the poll of 433 likely GOP primary voters shows.
After Rubio’s widely panned and mocked performance at the ABC News debate, this poll will most likely prove inaccurate when the final votes are counted and some of the other non-Trump candidates will benefit. It’s almost inconceivable that Rubio won’t take a major hit. And not just because of his debate performance:
But the Republican contest could still undergo significant swings in the closing days, with 41 percent of likely primary voters saying they could still change their minds – an unusually high number in the final weekend of the primary battle.
Clinton’s narrow Iowa victory has given her a major lift in the Granite State while Sanders now has reason to be nervous. The Vermont socialist senator was beating the former Secretary of State by a 57-37 percent margin right before the caucuses, but he now clings to just a 51-44 percent lead, according to the new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll of 407 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Feb. 2-6.
Clinton’s favorable rating increased to 75 percent since Iowa and she also regained some of her aura of inevitability, with 61 percent saying she’ll be the nominee while just 27 percent picking Sanders – a 13 point margin increase since last weekend.
Sanders continues to crush Clinton among New Hampshire independents and liberals, but the former first lady now leads her rival among registered Democrats by 51 to 46 percent.
I suspect Clinton’s numbers are up because a segment of voters who were not hard-core Sanders supporters found some of her debate performance appealing. Also, I continue to feel it’s a HUGE mistake for Sanders and his supporters to do to the word “moderate” what Republicans have succeeded in doing — telling people who don’t share their position on all issues that somehow their viewpoint is intrinsically superior and implying that Democratic moderates are akin to Republicans (just as Republican conservatives suggest that GOPes who may lean moderate on even some issues are akin to Democrats). Why would anyone want to vote for a candidate who uses a word that defines how they see the world as a disqualifier? It seems at times as if the bases of both parties are now on a quest to purify their parties. Once upon a time, candidates tried to keep their natural base but also enlarge their tent by seeking to build coalitions.
A Clinton win is highly unlikely, and would be a major upset:
But just 17 percent of New Hampshire Democratic voters now say they could change their minds, indicating there’s unlikely to be major shifts in the closing days. The lack of volatility makes it even tougher for Clinton to overcome Sanders on Tuesday.
Trump’s Iowa loss has made a major dent in his New Hampshire armor. His support dropped from 38 to 31 percent since the last Franklin Pierce-Herald poll just before the caucuses, while the number of Republican primary voters who believe the billionaire businessman will be the GOP nominee plunged from 57 to 39 percent.
Rubio is the hottest candidate in the GOP slugfest, according to the new poll.
These poll was taken before he inspired the term “Rubot” and became God’s gift to SNL writers, Andy Borowitz, and stand up comedians everywhere. It would, in fact, be an upset of sorts if Rubio’s support increased after Saturday’s debate.
But, then, if voters could want a showman for President, why not pick a punch line?
graphia via shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.