It’s raging. It’s flaring. It’s spreading.
In light of emails linking his office closely to shutting down lanes of the George Washington Bridge in what looks like a hack partisan revenge move, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christy was t-h-e political story yesterday. And the conventional wisdom was spreading full blast. By the end of the day some written and broadcast pundits were saying with (their usual) certainty that this was it. He’s toast. He’s done. Forget being the GOP Presidential candidate in 2016.
But even though Christy’s image took a hit and the emails now raises the now trite question “what did he know and when did he know it” and “gate” is being attached to the word “bridge” — a sign that high concept journalism is in full gear — there is one certainty in American politics: it’s certain you can’t trust conventional wisdom stated as certainty.
It’s often wrong and previous predictions are then quietly swept under the rug to make room for more predictions stated as virtual fact.
Don’t count Christie out. Yet. After 24 hours of virtually hiding from the press, cancelling an event, and issuing a four line statement that almost made matters worse, the Governor is about to hold a press conference — and a state Senator is calling for a probe.
First Read outlines five questions he needs to answer:
1. Has that member of Christie’s staff been fired? Christie seemed to be referring to his Deputy Chief of Staff Bridget Anne Kelly, who wrote the email saying, “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.” In his statement, Christie said the staff member “misled” him, and that “people will be held responsible for their actions.” So does that mean that Kelly is fired? Already, two top Christie Port Authority appointees have resigned due to this George Washington Bridge controversy. (One of them, David Wildstein, a Christie high school acquaintance – is slated to testify at noon ET before a state Assembly committee hearing. An NJ court will decide at 9:30 am ET if needs to testify.)2. Does it say something about the culture inside Christie’s office that aides — without his knowledge — were playing politics over these lane closures to punish a Democratic mayor for not endorsing the governor in a race Christie was going to win by 20 points?…
3. Does he regret not taking the allegations more seriously? When asked last month if his administration played politics with these lane closures, Christie said sarcastically, “I worked the cones on that. Unbeknownst to everybody I was actually the guy out there.” But until yesterday’s disclosures, it doesn’t seem as if the governor or anyone else in his administration was trying to get to the bottom of why these lanes were closed. Why not?
4. How does he regain voters’ trust?…
5. Does he show contrition and apologize to the people of Fort Lee and its Democratic Mayor Mark Sokolich? In his statement, Christie said he was “outraged” and “deeply saddened.” But he didn’t apologize. And we’ve now learned that those caught in the traffic jams due to the lane closures included police officers searching for a missing 4-year-old year and emergency workers responding to medical crises. He has to show real contrition and self-reflection, which is not exactly something that Christie has shown to be in his DNA at this point.
Look for the media to fine more instances and stories of the impact of the lane closures. It wouldn’t be surprising to see some lawsuits as well.
Is Christie toast as a national GOP contender? Not yet. But his path is now much harder since there are many conservatives in his party who will battle to ensure he never gets the nomination and who’ll be tempted to sit out 2016 if he gets it, even if polls show he could win.
There are already predictions the worst is yet to come:
New Jersey House members aren’t calling for congressional investigations into revelations that a staffer in Gov. Chris Christie’s office called for the closing of lanes on the New Jersey side of the George Washington Bridge.
“I think the worst is yet to come,” said New Jersey Democrat Bill Pascrell, who represents the town that was turned into a parking lot last year when some of the bridge’s lanes were abruptly closed for four days. “I don’t think we’ve seen all of it at all. I’m so happy that it’s unfolding slowly, like an onion opening up. You always get more facts that way — not to refer to the governor as an onion, but he’s been referred to as worse things.
Christie’s national political fate will hinge on two things: a)how he responds to this scandal in a press conference, and, b)how it plays in the traditional and social media. That will give an indication of the damage to his image and if he is seen as someone uncharacteristically clueless about what went on or as the instigator. Slate’s John Dickerson nails it:
Christie now faces problems that echo ones this president has faced, most recently in the rollout of the Affordable Care Act: Does he apologize, and how fully? Does he take responsibility for the actions of his aides? Does he admit mistakes? Does he fire someone? Does he increase his famous bluster or does he step back from it? Christie is very good at giving advice on these matters. Now he can show rather than tell.
As a political matter, if Christie handles the fallout with skill, you could see voters finding their way to a rationalization. Sure, he is a little messy, but that’s why he gets results! The truth of leadership is that you want a president who can be a bit of a bully. As former Defense Secretary Robert Gates says in his new memoir, President Obama and President Bush both had problems with Congress because neither was liked or feared. But that obviously only goes so far. We also don’t want presidents who abuse their power. The Fort Lee emails are a classic case of that. Christie was already a lock to win his 2013 re-election race and therefore didn’t really need the mayoral endorsement. If a top aide to the governor can waste public money in an act of petty vindictiveness, imagine what might happen with real power—power of the kind we have all been debating in the wake of disclosures about the NSA’s ability to monitor American citizens. On the other hand, if Christie hires staffers who were dumb enough to say this kind of thing on email, perhaps general competence is the bigger worry.
So watch the press conference or watch the clips. The reaction over the next few hours will be pivotal.
The bottom line?
Christie is now a political target. He now has big baggage. And he’ll have to deal with it.
So don’t count him out.
(Yet.)
UPDATE: The politically astute Booman (who doesn’t repeat conventional wisdom but gives perceptive takes) has a different view:
But, unless he is announcing his resignation, I don’t think it is possible for him to improve his situation or do much to slow the cancer that will consume his administration. He will face government probes, including at the federal level, and he will be in court a lot, trying to explain why ambulances were delayed and answering to mayors who want to be financially compensated for the damage Christie did. This story will never go away until Christie goes away. The conspiracy wasn’t actually all that tightly-held. A lot of people knew about it both when it was happening and shortly afterward. They are going to get sued. This isn’t something that can be solved by asking a loyal subordinate to take the fall. It won’t work out like that.
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.