What’s interesting about New Hampshire is not Romney’s (fairly strong) win but the number of Democratic votes for Romney and the number of independent votes in general. Here’s how the Washington Post’s Dan Balz sees it:
Romney’s campaign advisers are bracing for what they expect will be the nastiest contest yet. South Carolina has a history of negative politics, and the contest there will be do-or-die for many of his rivals. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and an independent fundraising group supporting him have already gone on the attack. Romney’s record at Bain Capital and his conservative credentials could face an all-out assault.
The Palmetto State contest has long been considered potentially difficult for Romney, but he could win it in the same way Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) won it four years ago — with just 33 percent of the vote, the result of a crowded field and divided conservative opposition. …Dan Balz, WaPo
One thing going for Romney’s New Hampshire is that a double win — Iowa and New Hampshire — is unusual. But the way it looks to some is like this: Romney won by a margin so tiny in Iowa that probably half of America thinks Santorum really took the state. And his win in what he call his “home state” of New Hampshire is in the 30-40% range (not all votes are counted at this writing) –not exactly a sweep and not much more than he got in 2008 when McCain won that primary. But he got some support from Democrats and more from independents (not many fewer than Ron Paul got).
Nate Silver sees a solid win for Romney, though.
Yes, Mr. Paul’s numbers are impressive tonight, and because many of his voters are so young, his performance could have real implications for the future of the Republican Party. But he isn’t likely to mount a serious challenge to Mr. Romney for the nomination right now, in 2012.
And yet, no Republican seems likely to drop his bid based on his performance tonight, although we’ll have to monitor the newswires over the next 48 hours.
The conventional wisdom seems to hold that some conservative opponent will eventually rise to give Mr. Romney a real run for his money. But the odds increased tonight that nobody will be up to the challenge. …FiveThirtyEight, NYT
New Hampshire, where you can barely move in winter because your nether parts are stiff with cold and for four months weather ranges from snow-blinding to bleak, there’s no point pretending that “this is America!”
“All I see are white faces,” complained one news photographer. …Dana Milbank, WaPo, reporting from the frozen tundra
And this, also from Milbank:
Later, my editor and I retreated to Jackie’s Diner in Nashua, around the corner from the Huntsman event. Waitress Barbara Justason, 77, told us she had tired of the campaign events. “It’s all reporters and no real people,” she said.
The “real people” just weren’t into the campaign this year. “Usually I research everything and have big arguments at the counter. This time, I found myself not even wanting to read the articles in the paper,” she said. “Maybe I’ll close my eyes and it’ll be eenie, meenie, mynie, moe.” …WaPo
McClatchy, news feed for the rest of America, broadens the view of what New Hampshire tells us.
Mitt Romney heads out of New Hampshire on Wednesday on a probable march to the Republican presidential nomination — but with scars and weaknesses that could lead him to limp weakly into a general election against President Barack Obama.
On the plus side, his back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire were unprecedented; anti-Romney conservatives head to South Carolina as divided as ever; and polls signal that he could win both South Carolina and Florida against that fractured opposition for a January sweep. That probably would clinch the nomination for him.
Yet he received an often-tepid response from Republicans, even in his own New England backyard. He faces a blistering ad assault in South Carolina that could hurt him among moderates and independents critical to the fall vote. And he’s shown a tendency to utter politically tone-deaf quotes that signal difficulty connecting with working-class voters who appear ripe for the picking from the Democrats.
“He’s pretty much had it his way so far,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College in New York, which polls for McClatchy and NBC News. “He’s not very strong for a front-runner who could be on the verge of locking up the nomination.” …Steve Thomma, McClatchy
And Thomma picks up this quote from Romney on the eve of the vote: “If you think that I should spend my entire campaign carefully choosing how everything I say relates to people, as opposed to saying my own experience and telling my own experience, then that would make me a very different person than I am.”
Go for it, Mitt! We’re waiting…!
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I guess I’m expected to say something about tonight’s primary. So here it is. Mitt Romney has always been the inevitable nominee. After Iowa, he continued to be the inevitable nominee. After tonight, he is, still, the inevitable nominee. In other words, nothing happened. …Kevin Drum, MoJo