There’s an interesting piece at Politico today that examines over 40 years of surveys of the American electorate. The conclusion of the authors is that the United States is not left, right, center-right or center-left. It is, if the surveys are accurate, both conservative and liberal at the same time. The explanation offered is that Americans are predominantly conservative ideologically and predominantly liberal operationally.
The surveys began during the 1964 presidential election and can be duplicated in a number of surveys since, up to 2009. The basic facts haven’t changed significantly during that time. Ideologically, conservatives outnumber liberals by roughly three to one. Operationally, liberals outnumber conservatives by roughly two to one. Putting this dichotomy into the current political debate explains much of what we see happening on the national stage.
Ideologically, a majority of Americans believe that reducing the deficit should be a priority for the federal government. But, operationally, plans like the Ryan budget proposal, with its no tax increases and replacing Medicare with a voucher system, have put conservatives in a political hole. According to the Politico piece, a majority of Americans would prefer a mix of domestic and military cuts, combined with tax increases to solve the problem. And, by large majorities, they do not want the Social Security or Medicare systems changed. Whether they would agree to cost savings in the way those programs are administered is not addressed but would likely be supported.
Does this explain the turnaround in electoral fortunes between 2008 and 2010? Perhaps. The authors suggest that liberal overreach in health care reform offended the ideological conservatism of most Americans. Its individual mandate ran counter to the base conservative belief in personal freedom and responsibility and brought about the Republican wave of 2010. They argue that the same may be happening in the opposite direction now as Republicans overreach and threaten operational liberalism, opening the door to a Democratic bounceback in 2012.
If the thesis is true, it also sheds light on perceptions of President Obama and the Republican field of contenders. Operationally too conservative for the tastes of the general electorate, the Republican field is viewed as weak. In fact, the field has many accomplished candidates. They simply aren’t acceptable operationally, though they may be attractive ideologically. Obama conversely, though he seems a weak president in reality, effectively walks the tightrope of compromise.
Read the Politico article . Then let’s talk in the comments section. What do you think?
Contributor, aka tidbits. Retired attorney in complex litigation, death penalty defense and constitutional law. Former Nat’l Board Chair: Alzheimer’s Association. Served on multiple political campaigns, including two for U.S. Senator Mark O. Hatfield (R-OR). Contributing author to three legal books and multiple legal publications.