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Posted by on Jan 4, 2008 in Politics | 3 comments

‘Secret’ Weapons for Tuesday Predictions

I would have posted this “news” earlier today, but I wanted to wait for my boss to confirm the results. In a limited, six-person survey in our office yesterday morning (no bets allowed, just cash-free guesses), he asked for our predictions on the top-three finishers in both parties in the Iowa caucuses.

Now, keep in mind, all six of the people involved in this mini-survey spend a fair portion of their professional lives managing public policy issues, and most of us spend a fair portion of our non-professional lives following politics in general.

But only one of us ended up with a perfect prediction. You guessed it. Moi. (Thank you. Thank you. No, seriously, thank you.)

Granted, there are no guarantees I’ll repeat this stunning performance Tuesday morning with respect to the NH primaries. But to even the odds, I did share with my colleagues two of the three main sources I use to track and inform my guesses, and I thought — what the hell — I’d list them here, as well.

Naturally, this list does not represent everything I read, not by a long shot. It focuses solely on my three most-trusted, race-prediction props. Granted, many readers here already have their own sources, or might use the same sources I list below. But for others who are casually stopping by and/or looking for a little extra edge in the “Guess Department” (to impress friends at cocktail parties, etc.) — well, here you go.

The Moderate Voice
No, I don’t just write here, I actually read what others write here, authors and commenters. (By the way, this site is the one source I did not share with my colleagues, since I try, with occasional success, to honor that ancient separation-of-work-and-extracurricular-interest principle.)

I focus on the front-page stories here, plus the blogs of Ben Smith (dogging the D’s) and Jonathan Martin (dogging the R’s). And I’ll continue reading this site, even though I thought their lead GOP headline today was a little ridiculous.

Real Clear Politics
Great coverage and very valuable poll summaries and poll aggregations. I pay particular attention to the aggregated state polls and the trends illustrated therein.

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