poihoiugouygitfUpdating Saturday’s post on the prospects for the Democrats to hold onto control of the Senate, Public Policy Polling has new polls out which give the Republicans small leads in Colorado and Alaska. Looking back at the map at electoral-vote.com, based upon polling results, the Democrats now need to take two states where Republicans lead (provided that Greg Orman wins and caucuses with the Democrats) in order to maintain control.

Being behind in Colorado, Alaska, and Iowa reduces the chances for the Democrats to maintain control, leaving the states which will determine control of the Senate in the south. Alaska has flipped each way in the polls, with polling in the state not considered to be terribly reliable. Should it come down to Alaska we could have a long wait on election night. It could take even longer to know who controls the Senate if it comes down to run off elections in Louisiana or Georgia. A two way race in these states would favor the Republicans as the supporters of candidates who don’t make the run off elections are more likely to back the Republican candidate.

As it stands now, Democrats will have to win in all the states where they have a narrow lead, and pull off additional victories in states where they are slightly behind. While this certainly gives the Republicans the advantage, with media models predicting a Republican victory, control of the Senate remains in play as a small shift of only 2-3 percent favoring the Democrats could shift several states. As I discussed on Saturday, state polling in midterm elections is often off by this amount. The Democratic ground game could give them the additional votes needed, but it is also possible that the Republicans can have a mini-wave and exceed their current position by a few points.

Joe Biden does predict that the Democrats will hold the Senate.

Update: On election day, Charlie Cook predicts the Republicans will win seven seats (which would give them control of the Senate). This is the safe prediction, consistent with the final polls, but certainly not the only outcome if Democratic voters get out to vote in higher numbers than predicted. Nate Silver gives the Republicans a 76 percent chance of taking control of the Senate.

Further last minute poll results and predictions posted here.

Originally posted at Liberal Values

graphic via shutterstock.com

Update: Reflections on the election results. Republicans Beat Something With Nothing Other Than Negativity And Fear

Ron Chusid
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Copyright 2014 The Moderate Voice
  • Slamfu

    Democrats deserve to lose. The GOP has done everything to give the election to them, yet the Dems refuse to capitalize. Where are the Democrats trumpeting Obamacare’s failure to destroy the entire nation as just about everyone in the GOP predicted? Why have the shutdowns been removed from the political discussion? Why aren’t the Dems shouting from the rooftops that every single Republican voted no on the attempt to make an amendment to curb campaign contributions by letting states regulate that just a few short weeks ago? Why aren’t they bashing the GOP for having nothing, literally nothing to offer in terms of solutions and plenty to offer on keeping this recovery dragged out as long as possible? Why are Democrats running from their own positions and trying to trick voters in tough states into thinking they are Republican lite instead of making the case for their cause and why its better?

    So far the best thing the Democrats have managed to do is let Republicans win, implement their policies, and watch as the wheels come off the wagon and then hope to win the next election because GOP policies are so disastrous. See Kansas, Kentucky, Wisconsin.

  • sheknows

    In one way Democrats have brought this on themselves, but that way has been in lack of offense. Republicans use language which continually places every Dem concept, person, and idea under attack. That is their strategy. So when all you have time to do is be in defense mode, you lose precious opportunities. The bottom line, Dems should never have been placed in that position. But failing to act after being bullied and pummeled the first 4 years shows an amazing lack of organization.
    If Republicans can go to a restaurant and discuss a plan to block everything the admin does..why weren’t/ aren’t there Democrat diners who decided to attack everything the Republicans did /do? Also to repeatedly ask them…”let’s hear your plan” and humiliate them to the voters.
    Maybe these shrinking violets are the ones who keep saying that there are only a small handful of radicals in the Republican party. Brother!..wake up.

  • JSpencer

    Sure, dems brought it on themselves to some extent, but let’s face it, the electorate is stupid and easily conned. How could this be any more obvious? I don’t say this because the senate may go to the reps but because the electorate is too dimwitted to differentiate between facts and BS. Pathetic…

    • sheknows

      So since the electorate is so stupid, that means the only way to get their vote ( if we can even get them to vote at all) is to present the parties in terms they CAN fathom. Forget the issues….they do. All they want is the strongest team and a good fight. Give the people what they want. 🙂

      • JSpencer

        Also I blame all the people who don’t vote. They are blessed to live in this country (by pure luck in most cases) and can’t even be bothered to take part in it.

        • It is up to the candidates to motivate the electorate. They are not going to move because they are what they are: entrenched in life enough to not care (even in presidential elections there still could be more turnout). I would run a candidate in a reality TV format. I’m going where the action is!

          But much of this comes from the view of a divided and constantly dysfunctional Congress. There are local ordinances here in South Carolina that received more votes than the Senate and Representative race. What does that tell ya?

          • sheknows

            it tells me that people probably feel powerless to change things in Washington but feel they can influence things closer to home.

          • JSpencer

            Good point, part of good leadership does include motivating voters. I still have a beef with the electorate though. 😉

  • No doubt that the Democrats have a lot of problems with messaging, but this year the major problem remains the fact that they are defending Senate seats in several red states which they picked up in a presidential election year. In two years the Democrats will have the advantage. A Republican win this year is a dead cat bounce. They still have all the same long term problems.

    On the other hand, it is possible that if the Democrats did a better job of messaging that they might get out more Democratic voters in midterm elections and not be at such a disadvantage in the midterm elections. How many people are voting against their self interests for Republicans tonight based upon misconceptions as to what Democrats believe? When Democrats do not forcibly put out their views, they leave themselves wide open to the tactics of distortion used by the Republicans.

    • JSpencer

      I agree with your assessment Ron. I won’t be surprised if the senate swings back to democrat control in two years, in fact I think they should go for the whole enchilada. If dems are paying attention (and they have no excuse not to be) they will have learned some valuable (and painfully obvious to some of us) lessons by now.