Our political Quote of the Day comes from one of the most-level headed analysts in any media, Marc Ambinder, who now writes The Compass blog on the great news weekly The Week. In a column titled “Not an October Surprise” he contends the race was always expected to narrow and also points to polls in swing states suggesting that it should not be freak out time for the Democrats (yet).
He then gives us our Quote of the Day — which is actually the last part of his post:
(1) This race was always going to be tight. Independents were always going to be up for grabs. And even if Romney hadn’t closed the deal post-convention, he would need a single moment of good television, something not pre-rehearsed, to cross the plausibly presidential threshold.
(2) Obama still has an edge in the battleground states. His get-out-the-vote operation is significantly superior to the GOP’s, something that the GOP will admit.
(3) When something happens in the race, it is priced into the election almost immediately. American voters, as Bruce Feiler and others have noticed, seem to be much better at quickly processing information… the same information that, 10 years ago, might have taken a week to process. That’s why game-changing events don’t change the game very much — or why they don’t often change the game.
(4) A corollary to this is that both sides at this stage will try to use new information to bolster their beliefs or fears. So a second bad poll for Obama, or some bad news report, might actually exaggerate the valence.
We will know today whether Obama receives a bump from his debate performance.
So here’s a question for you: Why do Democratic elites freak out? Why is it that Democrats are always freaking out? And why would a similar situation not make Republican elites do the same thing?
Some thoughts:
The bottom line in this election: Republicans know how much is at stake with the Supreme Court and they’ll get out to vote.
Do the Democrats?
Or will they become dispirited and sit home again – mentally done in by polls, analysts’ glum predictions, or what the blog that they go to that already says in advance what they believe says is going to happen?
If Democrats don’t fall into this traditional pattern, I’d say that would be the real October surprise….
Freaking out graphic via shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.